Remember all those stellar BLS jobs reports that sent interest rates higher almost every time they were released?
Well, it turns out every one of them was wrong. If you can’t trust the government, who can you trust?
Anyway, the U.S. Labor Department just revised its 12-month jobs report down by 818,000 jobs – literally shocking the world because of the magnitude of the correction (off by about 1/3).
This Kobeissi Letter post on X explains just how bad this is in much more detail.
Every time a BLS jobs report was released, analysts like Stephanie Pomboy, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Barry Habib, and Jeff Snider would shred the data and illuminate the inconsistencies – and endure nonstop derision from commenters.
Bodes Poorly for Economy – But Great for Rates
Long story short – it turns out those analysts were 100% correct, and this bodes very poorly for the economy but well for interest rates.
Habib is particularly upset today because those false reports pushed up rates, adversely impacting both the mortgage and real estate industries.
And wait, there’s more: The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators was down again – for a near-record 29th month in a row.
And – over the last 3 months, inflation (ex-shelter) has been well under the Fed’s magical 2% number as well (at only 1.2%), as Michael Green reminds us.
All this is to say that no wonder 93% of 189 global asset managers surveyed by Bank of America expect global interest rates to be lower within the next 12 months – the largest share ever recorded, even above 2008 levels.
The Assessor Does Not Share Data with Lenders or Appraisers
We had a borrower recently who wanted to contest his assessed value in order to lower his property tax bill.
He was, however, worried that the information he supplied to the assessor would impact his ability to refinance.
And we let him know that assessors never share information with lenders or lenders’ appraisers.
Appraisers can of course see what an assessed value is, but appeal information and comparable sales data is never shared.
Similarly, assessors never see appraisals that lenders use, as lenders’ appraisals are never public record.
So, yes, homeowners can tell their assessor that their home is worth $1 million and at the same time tell their lender that their home is worth $2 million, and nobody will be the wiser.
They will have to back up their claims with comparable sales data,** but my main point is that information is never shared in either direction.
**The above borrower will likely get an appraisal waiver in any case, so his estimates of value are truly irrelevant no matter who he shares them with.
