I. “CAVEMAN ISSUES DIRE WARNING THAT THE WHEEL IS GOING TO ELIMINATE COUNTLESS JOBS”
I saw the headline above a few weeks ago and thought, “Man, I sure hope nobody invents the wheel…” Think of all the guys who drag dead mammoths back to camp who will be put out of work?
But they invented the wheel anyway – and it was not long before there was a labor shortage!
Wheeled wagons let them carry far more dead mammoths back to camp. This made everyone wealthier, and it required more mammoth butchers, mammoth cooks, mammoth hunters, spear makers, wheel makers, axle makers, wagon makers, lumber gatherers, and spice collectors (nothing is worse than bland mammoth).
The politicians who wanted to regulate and raise taxes to fend off the wheel threat saw the job shortage and quickly changed their focus to the next big threat: the horse. Think of all the wagon pushers who will be put out of work?
I wonder what those cavemen would think about the AI threat?
II. DON’T THROW IN THE TOWEL; THERE IS STILL A TON OF BUSINESS!
Rates went up today, and the average mortgage rate is approaching 7.75% (up from 5.99% in Feb). Fortunately, rates still remain below the 8% peak we saw in 2023.
That leads to my main point for this section: even when rates peaked at 8%, a huge number of transactions still closed.
In the two East Bay counties near our CA office, 1,620 transactions closed in October 2023.
In the DFW metro near our Dallas office, 6,600 transactions closed in October 2023.
In August of this year, 1,737 transactions closed in the East Bay, and 7,300 transactions closed in the DFW metro.
The peak month for closings this year was June – when 1,900 transactions closed in the East Bay, and 9,600 closed in DFW.
So, even compared to the seasonal peak, October of 2023 was not THAT far off, and neither was August of this year.
Listings are as strong as ever, too, with about 4,000 in the East Bay and over 29,000 in DFW.
In a dynamic economy like the current one, there are always enormous numbers of buyers and sellers who will still buy and sell no matter what (See October of 2023).
So, I hope nobody is listening to the doomsayers and throwing in the towel… until rates come down.
III. OCTOBER IS THE BEST TIME TO BUY!
Yahoo Finance recently posted this: “What is the best time to buy a home? A recent evaluation indicated mid-October, specifically the week of October 12 to 18. This period offers a combination of high inventory, low prices, and little competition from other buyers. In fact, competition is over 30% lower this week when compared to the year’s peak buying periods.”
The lower competition factor is even more pronounced this year, as today’s rates are keeping more buyers on the sidelines. This is info we all need to share with our buyers… There are bargains to be had! (Maybe don’t tell sellers, though…)
