INVENTORY IS STILL THE PROBLEM! Fascinating Data; Solutions Too; Rates Hit New Lows
ACTIVE LISTINGS FALL IN MARCH!
Active listings fell in March to only 563,000 nationwide, down from 578,000 in February. This would be close to an all-time record low, but for the last year’s even lower numbers.
But, either way, the number is extremely low, not even close to the 4 million we saw in 2007, and, also surprising because we normally see active listings CLIMB in March.
This is ANOTHER REMINDER to the “housing-crash-crowd” that we need EXCESS INVENTORY for prices to fall – and today’s very tight inventory actually makes a strong case for more housing appreciation!
THE REASON LISTINGS ARE SO LOW – FASCINATING DATA!
We all know why inventory is so low: Mortgage Rate Lockdowns (sellers with 3% fixed-rate mortgages don’t want to sell if selling forces them to buy in a 6% mortgage rate environment).
Here’s the data from Black Knight: 65% of ALL homes with 1st mortgages have interest rates under 4%!
13.4 million homes have rates under 3%; and 20.9 million homes have rates between 3% and 4%.
HANG ON – HELP IS ON THE WAY!
The above subheading is not just an excuse to reference a boomer-band-bubblegum-hit from the 1970s: Help Is On Its Way (but, it is an OK song, and I am delighted I can now admit I like the band, as it was taboo to do so when I was in high school 😊).
More importantly, help is on its way in the form of lower rates – playing out right now in real time (no longer just a “prediction”).
Rates hit lows today we only briefly saw in December and January, which spurred homebuying activity both times.
The latest reasons for rates falling are weaker than expected labor reports, corroborating Jeff Snider’s assertions that our economy is heading full speed into a bad recession.
Reminder: I trust Snider’s prognostications so much because he has been so accurate over the last several years, and over the last three months in particular.
In any case, a bad recession and/or more financial crises (both predicted by Snider) will not only bring rates down significantly (spurring more homeowners to list their properties), but such events will also likely force many people to sell too.
Hence, we can expect a lot more activity this year – including listings, purchases, and, for those of us in the mortgage industry, refinances.
Help is truly on its way.
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