Tag Archive for: housing inventory

Will Commercial Office Buildings Turn Into Condos? Nope. But, We Can Dream…

I was in Phoenix this weekend visiting my mom – and there was a very nice commercial office building behind my motel…that was completely abandoned (photos at bottom of blog). […]Read More

The 3 Forces Battling For Direction Of Housing Market; Fed Follows The Market

Myth: The Fed Sets Long-Term (30-Year) Interest Rates. Fact: The Fed Follows The Market. Mortgage rates fell 3/8% over the first week of June – even though the Fed didn’t […]Read More

Inventory “Surge” In Perspective; FHA’s Easy & Rates Are Low; Agents Work 85 Hours Per Transaction; Inflation Not Caused By Greed

I see the “inflation is caused by greed” fallacy repeated over and over on social media and in blogs (even in Leonard Steinberg’s excellent Compass blog), so I want to address it briefly. When markets are even remotely competitive, businesses can’t overcharge to be greedy because customers will simply move to competitors. The mortgage industry is a great example – along with almost every other retail sector. If Home Depot, for example, charges too much for chainsaws, lumber, and hammers, customers will start going to Lowe's.Read More

Booming Stock Market’s Keeping Rates High! 12-Day Closes; Giant Pool of Money

There are about 1,460 active listings in the two counties near our SF Bay Area office – the lowest number I have ever seen … by far! (In contrast, there were almost twice as many at this time in 2021). Because inventory is so incredibly tight, we are seeing multiple offers everywhere despite today’s higher rates. As a result, the majority of the contracts we’re getting are 12-day and 14-day closings, as fast closings continue to entice sellers. Hence, we are again encouraging our buyers and agents to ask about our 12 and 14 calendar (not “business”) day closings.Read More

Will Low Rates Break the Mortgage Rate Lockdown Logjam & Crush the Market?

Despite naysayers insisting that mortgage rate lockdowns are NOT a thing, it seems abundantly obvious to us in the industry that they are most definitely “a thing.” Sellers are reluctant to sell if they have to buy a new home with a mortgage in a 4% to 5% higher rate environment. Hence, sellers are “locked down” by their low-rate mortgages, and this is the reason why inventory remains so tight.Read More

3 Events That Will Crash Home Prices! 1 Factor Keeping Home Prices High

This is what has shocked housing market analysts worldwide: Despite the fastest rise in interest rates in history, home prices in the U.S. have remained amazingly resilient. And the one factor that is keeping home prices high is of course: TIGHT INVENTORY! The housing doomsayers don’t seem to understand what is keeping inventory so tight and why it matters so much.Read More

Shocking Data! Population & Households Grew Far Faster Than Home Supply

I have been pointing how the number of new households has been growing much faster than the number of new homes coming on the market for years. But, I rarely share charts that illuminate the situation as clearly as the two charts I am sharing below.Read More

Why America’s “Savagely Unhealthy” Housing Market Is The Envy Of The World

Logan Mohtashami is a name to bookmark, especially if you’re tracking insights into the 'housing market 2023'. On Twitter, his feed is filled with a blend of opinionated, data-centric, amusing, and often controversial takes.Read More

17 Huge Reasons for Optimism; Inflation Here to Stay; Rates Won’t Fall! Boy, Was I WRONG!

I have been blogging over and over about the likelihood of a disinflation, deflation and/or a bad recession for over a year now.  My blogs are based on the opinions […]Read More

Stopping Onslaught of Mortgage Lender Phone Calls; Pending Home Sales Down! FHA Rates Are LOW!

I now get well over 100 phone calls, messages, and emails every day. And yes, I filter and screen them all, but the volume is just off the charts – and the extreme uptick in volume tells me something is very amiss in our economy.Read More

Debunking Negative Housing News Again. Sigh…

“I just had a listing sell for $200,000 over asking. All of my homes are selling within a week, and at list price. This is not my reality. Am I missing something?”Read More

Inventory Is STILL The Problem! Fascinating Data; Solutions Too; Rates Hit New Lows

Active listings fell in March to only 563,000 nationwide, down from 578,000 in February. This would be close to an all-time record low, but for the last year’s even lower numbers. But, either way, the number is extremely low, not even close to the 4 million we saw in 2007, and, also surprising because we normally see active listings CLIMB in March.Read More

MBA “Purchase Index” Falls to Lowest Level Since 1995! Panic Time?

Rates have climbed almost a full 1% point since early February, as this Mortgage News Daily Chart indicates. In direct response to this increase in rates, purchase money mortgage applications […]Read More

1.9 Million Household Formations; 1.4 Million New Homes Coming Online

In 2023, 1.9 million new households will be formed as young people leave college, leave their parents’ homes, get married, etc. But – only 1.4 million new homes will come […]Read More