Tag Archive for: housing inventory

Stopping Onslaught of Mortgage Lender Phone Calls! Pending Home Sales Down! FHA RATES ARE LOW!

SURE SIGN OF RECESSION: A MASSIVE UPTICK IN SALES CALLS! Famed, Nobel-Prize-winning economist, Paul Krugman tweeted this morning that today’s GDP data shows “no hint of recession.” So, it is obvious to me that Mr. Krugman does not own a business because if he did, he would be getting inundated with sales calls and know […]Read More

Debunking Negative Housing News Again. Sigh…

“I just had a listing sell for $200,000 over asking. All of my homes are selling within a week, and at list price. This is not my reality. Am I missing something?” That was a text I received last night from an extremely successful and experienced agent who has listed and sold more homes than […]Read More

INVENTORY IS STILL THE PROBLEM! Fascinating Data; Solutions Too; Rates Hit New Lows

ACTIVE LISTINGS FALL IN MARCH! Active listings fell in March to only 563,000 nationwide, down from 578,000 in February. This would be close to an all-time record low, but for the last year’s even lower numbers. But, either way, the number is extremely low, not even close to the 4 million we saw in 2007, […]Read More

MBA “Purchase Index” Falls to Lowest Level Since 1995! Panic Time?

Rates have climbed almost a full 1% point since early February, as this Mortgage News Daily Chart indicates. In direct response to this increase in rates, purchase money mortgage applications plummeted – showing once again how sensitive buyers are to interest rates. And – the Mortgage Bankers Association “Purchase Index” (based largely on mortgage applications) […]Read More

1.9 Million Household Formations; 1.4 Million New Homes Coming Online

In 2023, 1.9 million new households will be formed as young people leave college, leave their parents’ homes, get married, etc. But – only 1.4 million new homes will come online. This data was reported by Barry Habib last week, and it is one more HUGE reminder of why 2023 is so different from 2007 […]Read More

Deciphering The Terrifying Housing Decline Numbers from Case-Shiller

RATES FALL IN THE FACE OF FED RATE INCREASE Rates fell today even though the Fed will increase “rates” today. I encourage everyone to re-read or re-share this blog: The Fed Does Not Control Interest Rates! BUT – our jumbo rates are largely the same today because the CFPB pushed Wells Fargo out of the […]Read More

DANGER! Don’t Look Through the “2008 Lens!”

Lyn Alden is probably my favorite Macro Analyst, as she is clearly brilliant and also very articulate and objective. I HIGHLY recommend following her on Twitter and on any podcast she happens to hop on. Last week, she was on one of my favorite macro podcasts – MacroVoices – and I also recommend that, as […]Read More

It’s The Inventory, Stupid! (Why Values Are Not Crashing)

Before I explain who I am calling “stupid,” I want to touch on numerous comments I received in regard to Monday’s Blog: Why Everyone Needs A House As An Inflation Hedge Now More Than Ever. All of the comments reminded me that it is NOT just the house that is the inflation hedge, but it […]Read More

Investors Dumping Inventory vs. Mortgage Rate Lockdowns!

BIG PROBLEMS AHEAD FOR REAL ESTATE INVESTORS! That was the title of this tweet from Nick Gerli, a real estate guru on YouTube. He said: “The 6-month US Treasury now yields…the same as Buying & Renting Out a House in America…Translation: Big Real Estate Investor selloff coming. Especially among Wall Street owners.” And, in response […]Read More

Inflation Cools & Rates Plummet; More Inventory ≠ A Housing CRASH

CPI Inflation numbers came out surprisingly cool this morning – indicating it was flat month-over-month and down year-over-year (it was 9.1% in June but 8.5% in July). 8.5% inflation is still sky-high and probably under-reported too, but the bond market loved it and rates plummeted (because the reports were much lower than expected). Rates plummeted […]Read More

Car Shortages to Surpluses Overnight; Things Change VERY QUICKLY

I saw this tweet over the weekend: “The auto industry collapse has just begun and this would be one of the worst times for you to buy a vehicle. In a normal market (pre-2020), Auto Loan delinquencies hovered at 2 to 3%. Today, that number is exploding with nearly 1 in every 4 loans in default in Washington DC.” The author of the tweet is Graham Stephan, a young investor and car enthusiast, and he may or may not be right.Read More

Why Housing Prices Will Double In 6 Years; No Bubble Here…Part 37

Interestingly, Barry Habib (MBS Highway Founder), Ken McElroy (famous real estate investor), and some dude on Reddit all recently made the case for much higher housing prices – DESPITE HIGHER RATES. And all of them were responding to all of the housing bubble fears we see everywhere now on social media and in the press. […]Read More

Why Higher Rates Could Save The Housing Market

One of the biggest issues facing the housing market today is a lack of inventory. And, ironically, the very rate increases that many fear will tank the housing market may actually save it. Redfin reported that investors purchased 18.4% of all residential real estate in Q4 of 2021. 3/4 of those purchases were “all cash.” And 3/4 of those purchases were for single-family homes too.Read More

China’s Massive Housing Bubble? Will It Affect Us?

160 Million Units For Sale In China (vs. 3 Million In The U.S.) China has somewhere between 55 to 65 million unoccupied properties, depending on the source, and an additional 93 million units under construction. Famous financier, Hugh Hendry, was on this Rebel Capitalist Podcast in December discussing China’s extremely precarious property market – and […]Read More

Housing Inventory Crisis! How Bad Is It?

Picture yourself walking into your local Whole Foods and seeing 2/3 of the shelves entirely empty. That is exactly the state of the single-family residential real estate market today, according to Jason Hartman, a true expert when it comes to residential real estate. Mr. Hartman was recently on the Rebel Capitalist YouTube show making this […]Read More

Cash Buyers & “Scary” Signs Of The Times; False Mailers; Selling Info

OVERHEATED MARKET AWASH IN CASH – OR SIGN OF THE TIMES? A close friend of mine bought a home in Scottsdale, AZ, in November for less than $1.1mm. She visited the home a couple of times, played a bit of golf, swept the patio, made a few improvements – and listed the home for sale […]Read More

Housing Inventory Shortages – Is Help On The Way?

INVENTORY SHORTAGE – WILL THERE BE RELIEF? Homebuyers nationwide are facing severe housing inventory shortages while median home prices continue to rise. Pundits are weighing in on whether relief is on the way or not. Ken McElroy says relief is on the way. In this four-minute video, real estate guru Ken McElroy points out why […]Read More

The Other Reason Housing Inventory Is So Low (Not What You Think)

In the 1970s, when inflation was out of control, the press was always looking for scapegoats to blame like “middlemen” and “greedy businessmen” when the cause was really at the feet of Fed and Government policy. That is largely the situation today with respect to housing, as Fed and Government Policy – intended to help […]Read More

How Do Elections Affect The Housing Market?

The best blogs come from plywood companies. I always say that. Or at least today I do b/c I found this excellent blog, titled “Presidents and Plywood – How Elections Affect the Housing Market.” I have blogged numerous times about how the election might impact interest rates, but I have not focused on how it […]Read More

6 More Reasons Why Inventory Is Low; Not What You Think

I recently blogged about the coming “Nuclear Winter” for housing, focusing primarily on a massive pending inventory shortage. I am beating that dead horse one final time for several reasons: (1) it is a major issue that will impact us all; (2) this is excellent info for buyers to know when home shopping so they […]Read More

Appraisal Issues – Low Values, Delays & Why; When Summer = Spring

Our Social Media Manager recently noted a lot of comments on social media  regarding appraisal issues – both low values and delays. The conditions that foster these issues are worse than ever right now and I wanted to discuss a few reasons why. LOW VALUES: WHEN SUMMER = SPRING Spring is usually the issue. Appraisers […]Read More

People Staying In Homes Much Longer – Creates Inventory Shortage

“Fewer homes for sale is a big reason why even ultralow mortgage rates, record levels of home equity and a strong job market haven’t jump-started the sluggish housing market.” The above quote is from this recent WSJ article – People Are Staying In Their Homes Longer – A Big Reason for Slower Sales (we can […]Read More

Mortgage Volume Hits Lowest Level In 14 Years; A Good Thing?

Mortgage volume in the first quarter of 2014 hit its lowest level in 14 years, according to the Wall Street Journal today. Volume was almost 60% less than it was during the same quarter of 2013. The primary reason is the fall off in refinances. This is a good thing for buyers and Realtors for […]Read More