Tag Archive for: mortgage rates

The Refi Guys Are Getting Desperate! Watch Out!

/in ,
The refi guys are now getting more and more desperate in light of today’s long period of much higher-than-expected interest rates.Read More

The 10-Year Hits A “Record” High; Fed Stays Put On Rates: Do We Care? Perspective

/in , , ,
Every few weeks, I rewatch the movie Apocalypto – a movie that depicts Mayan warriors brutally capturing other Mayans – who then get their hearts ripped out and their heads cut off by Mayan priests in ritualistic sacrifices at the top of a pyramid in front of a bloodthirsty crowd roaring its approval. I rewatch the movie so often to remind myself that things could be worse when I wake up and see the 10-Year Treasury hit 4.7%. Although I suspect there are a lot of mortgage loan officers who might prefer getting sacrificed right now… There are comments on X about the 10-Year Treasury not seeing yields this high since 2007. But that is not true. They were higher in October of 2023, when we saw the yield clip 5.0% - and we all thought Armageddon was here. October of 2023 is also when mortgage rates peaked at 8.0%. Prior to 2023, though, the last time the 10-Year saw yields this high was 2007 – and it took a global financial meltdown to bring them down.Read More

Mortgage Rates in Tennessee: How to Get a Low Rate

/in ,
Mortgage rates in Tennessee move with two things: the national bond market and your personal financial profile. The bond market sets the baseline that every lender works from, and your credit score, down payment, loan type, and property details decide where your rate lands within that range. Rates change daily, so a number you saw last week may already be stale. Here is how rates are actually set, which factors you can control, and the moves that can lower your number before you apply.Read More

Appraisers Are Much Harsher In Slow Markets; And “No, WSJ, LOs Are Not Ripping Off Borrowers!”

/in , , ,
I. Are Appraisers Giving Bigger Condition Adjustments in 2026? There is a neighborhood about a mile west of my CA home that crashes when the market slows. I blog about it often, in fact, because it is near a very busy freeway. Buyers are willing to overlook freeway noise when markets are hot, and inventory is scarce, but not at all when the market softens. Appraiser Ryan Lundquist recently posted this blog: ARE APPRAISERS GIVING BIGGER CONDITION ADJUSTMENTS IN 2026? And the answer is yes because buyers are and can be far more demanding in slower markets. This is the case for all adverse issues affecting a property – poor condition, lack of updates, deferred landscaping, poor curb appeal, or adverse exterior influences (nearby traffic, commercial or industrial areas, schools, etc.). Sellers and agents should expect larger adjustments for adverse issues in slower markets.Read More

Fed Chair Pushes Rates Up; Rates Fall Next Day – Reminding Us How Powerless The Fed Is; Expect Lower Rates!

/in , , , ,
Interest rates moved higher yesterday in response to the Fed's comments implying we will not see a rate cut this year, among other things. The bond market then decided to remind the Fed who’s really in charge by pushing rates lower this morning in response to a peace deal with Iran and falling oil prices. The markets often respond to Fed comments in the near term, only to offset those moves soon thereafter with reactions to actual economic data – which is what happened today. It is a huge reminder not to get concerned about market reactions to Fed comments, as the Fed has much less power than most people realize.Read More

AMIs – Helping Poor People Who Only Make $246,000 Because We Care! (Why AMIs Matter!)

/in , , ,
I. Oil prices (WTI) have already fallen to $76 per barrel. I share this because “experts” like Doomberg and Peter Zeihan have been telling us that so much oil infrastructure was knocked offline that it would take months for oil prices to fall this much at the war’s end. But, instead of months, it was minutes. Experts wrong again… Rates are not falling in response, though, because other economic indicators are pushing rates higher. Today, it was a stronger-than-expected retail sales number. II. Only in the SF Bay Area can a household pulling in nearly a quarter of a million dollars get lumped in with the "moderate income" crowd that needs a little help buying a home. Welcome to the wonderful world of Area Median Income – or AMI. So, what is AMI (Area Median Income)? Every year, HUD publishes the median household income for each area in the country – basically the midpoint, with half of households above and half below. They matter so much because so many mortgage programs use AMI as the line that decides who qualifies for the goodies. And the Bay Area lines are bonkers. For 2026, Santa Clara County leads all of California with a 100% AMI of $205,500 for a family of four. San Francisco, San Mateo, and Marin aren't far behind at $200,800. Because Santa Clara is a designated “high-cost area,” the moderate-income ceiling for certain programs runs all the way up to 120% of that figure – roughly $246,600. Hence my sympathetic headline…Read More

Iran Peace Deal; Rates Fall A Little, But Not That Much; WHY?

/in , , ,
Factoid #1: If the spread between mortgage rates and the 10-Year Treasury were as high now as it was in 2023, the average mortgage rate would be almost 7.7%. Last year on this date, average rate was about 6.9%. So, yeah, today’s average of 6.56% is not so bad… Factoid #2: Elon’s $1.2 trillion net worth would only have been worth a meager $930 billion six years ago. This is a reminder that we’ve seen almost 30% inflation since the COVID money-printers were turned on, and that we should not be that impressed with Elon – who’s clearly just riding a wave of inflation (except for those rockets, satellites, neuro links, electric cars, electric trucks, giant battery packs, solar units, and boring machines, as well as universal internet service, FSD software, a mildly prominent social media company, and xAI).Read More

Condo Financing Hits Peak Debacle – But We Can Help! The War Ends For The 27th Time

/in , ,
330% Increase in Condo Projects Losing Fannie Mae Eligibility! Some 1,700 condo complexes are non-warrantable now, meaning they are no longer eligible for Fannie/Freddie financing. Calling this a debacle is an understatement. That is because losing financing options wipes out entire contingents of buyers (especially low-down-payment buyers). Depending on the issues with the complex/HOA and the financing options available, we have seen complexes lose 25% to 50% of their value when they become non-warrantable. In the olden days, the issues that made condos non-warrantable included: Litigation involving the HOA Owner occupancy ratios (need to be over 50% - for FHA and investor financing only) Too much commercial use (35% limit) Structural issues noted in the HOA minutes or MLS Concentration Issue (one owner can’t own more than 20% of the units) But today, the two big issues we see over and over are insufficient reserves and/or inadequate insurance. What happened? Inflation pushed up repair costs, condos got old, insurance costs went way up, and the occasional complex fell into the ocean (that seems to make lenders nervous).Read More

We Desperately Need Unrestricted AI & Data Centers (More Than We Might Realize)

/in , , , , ,
I. In the 1520s, Hernán Cortés conquered 10 million Aztecs with only 400 men, largely because he had superior technology (gunpowder, steel, armor, ships). In the 1200s and 1300s, the Mongols crushed everyone in their path with better technology (stirrups and bows). In the 19th Century, Britain brought China (a country 20 times larger) to its knees with superior technology (guns, cannons, steamships). And - Ukraine is beating back a much larger Russia today with superior technology (drones). The lesson is obvious – countries that fall behind in technology are extremely vulnerable.Read More

Rates Shoot Up On Hot Jobs Report! Uh Oh – Huge Mortgage Bank Starts Clothing Line?

/in , , ,
I have concrete proof that mortgage banks are getting absolutely desperate – and I will explain why below. But First – Uh, Oh – The Economy Is Hot! On Wednesday, I blogged about how the economy might be much hotter than we realize – and how that will put upward pressure on rates. And sure enough, we got a very hot jobs report today, and it pushed rates way up again. It was a BLS report (so not particularly trusted), and many jobs were in government and healthcare (less healthy growth), but it still contained many reasons for optimism. I say “uh oh” above because a hot economy and strong jobs reports push rates up. And this was not on any mortgage bank’s bingo card earlier this year – when I predicted rates would fall to 5.5% (right before Iran and oil price spikes pushed rates up by almost 3/4%).Read More

Peace Deal Dies; Rates Up; Why Trump Can’t/Won’t “Finish The Job!” NOT GOOD FOR RATES…

/in ,
Iran ended negotiations in response to ceasefire violations and Israel’s renewed attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran is also threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, oil prices spiked, and interest rates followed. Per the likes of Luke Gromen, Exxon’s CEO, Peter Zeihan, and Doomberg – energy prices are only going to continue to climb now because so much production is now offline or restricted. And – more importantly – prices will also spike because much of the world is now running off its energy reserves, which will soon run out. And worse, myriad other prices will spike because so many other products need to travel through the Persian Gulf (making the midterm elections pretty scary for Mr. Trump).Read More

Rates Are High, But Not THAT High; Perspective; Solutions?

/in , ,
Today’s average mortgage rate hovers around the 6.75% mark - a full 3/4% higher than the 5.99% we saw prior to the Iran War. The mortgage industry, which had ramped up for what they thought would be a banner year with steadily falling rates, is in panic mode. High rates are why there has been and will continue to be a wave of mergers and acquisitions, as many mortgage companies are simply giving up. The real estate industry is feeling the pain too, as rates heavily influence buyer activity.Read More

Oil & Rates Plummet; Why “Portable” Mortgages Are A Really Dumb Idea

/in ,
Oil prices plunged last night on credible rumors that the U.S. and Iran are close to an agreement to end the war. And, as I’ve been noting since the war started, as goes oil, so go rates. Rates fell sharply Portable mortgages are loans that homeowners can transfer from one home to another. Naïve housing analysts often float portable mortgages as a great way to free up “locked down” inventory (homes with very low rates that owners do not want to lose – so they refuse to sell). Homeowners with very low rates also often get excited by the prospect of portable mortgages.Read More

Iran Tensions Push Rates Up Again; Dead Boomers – Good or Bad? Appraisal Waivers Saving Deals!

/in ,
Mortgage rates bottomed out at 5.99% on February 27th – the day before the Iran war started. Rates peaked one month later on March 27th – hitting 6.625%. Rates then fell steadily into April but have since been rising in response to escalating tensions and rising oil prices. I share all this because rates shot up again today in response to Trump’s latest action, called “Project Higher Interest Rates.” OK – actually it is called “Project Freedom.” It is an effort by the U.S. to restore freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and free stranded commercial vessels. This action escalated tensions and pushed oil prices (the main cause of higher rates) higher again. Today’s average mortgage rate is 6.52%. We’re still below the peak we saw in March, but we’re getting close.Read More