Why Rates Will Rise to 5% By Year End; Observations and Effects

TAX TIP

The filing deadline this year is not until April 17th, as April 15th is a Sunday, and the 16th is a holiday.

Thank you Rob Chrisman for that tip and today’s blog topic (credit where credit is due).

WHY RATES WILL HIT 5%

My rate quote (below) for today’s blog is at 4.375%, but it was a full 1/2% lower only three months ago. This indicates that the Fed is finally getting traction with its desire to push rates up, after almost ten years of false alarms.

The Fed plans on increasing the short term Fed Funds rate at least two more times this year and the economy continues to show numerous signs of strength. As long as these trends continue rates will rise. I might add that inflation is also a concern, and signs of inflation also push rates up.

WHAT MIGHT HALT RATE INCREASES?

The usual suspects: 1. Negative economic news such as higher unemployment, decreasing consumer confidence and weak GDP growth; 2. Geopolitical strife such as hot wars and trade wars; and 3. Sovereign debt crises where countries can’t service their debt like we saw with Greece several years ago.

These are all real possibilities, so rates could very well turn south again. There is simply no way to know for sure.

IMPACT ON HOUSING

Nationwide, the impact should not be significant b/c inventories hit a 20 year low in late 2017, meaning demand exceeds supply.

In high-end markets, the impact may be more adverse b/c of tax reform and the larger effect higher rates have on payments.

EFFECT ON PAYMENTS

Our average loan amount at JVM is about $500,000. $500,000 at 4% results in a payment of $2,387. $500,000 at 5% results in a payment of $2,684. The difference is about $300.

That is real money but probably not a game-changer for someone looking for a home.

Jay Voorhees at (925) 855-4491
Real Estate Broker, CA Bureau of Real Estate, BRE# 01524255, NMLS# 335646