Tag Archive for: housing market

Rates Fall Back to the Sweet Spot After Oil Crash

Oil Prices (WTI) Plummeted To $92 Per Barrel From $104 Per Barrel On Monday. Interest rates followed and are now almost 3/8% LOWER than they were a few weeks ago. This unprecedented plunge in oil prices indicates again that very astute oil traders believe the Iran war will not escalate (again, huge investors with money on the line are often more accurate predictors of world events than “expert” pundits).Read More

2019 vs. 2026 Housing Inventory; So Many Interesting Takeaways!

In 1985, when I was motorcycling across America, I stopped at a dive bar in West Virginia for lunch because it was the only place around. It had that depressing, all-too-quiet, seen-it’s-better-days, worn out, musty lunchtime atmosphere that I’d seen at similar establishments all across the country. The only patrons were a few state construction workers grabbing lunch, a couple of local alcoholics, and a very bitter CBS reporter nursing a Bloody Mary. I recognized the reporter instantly, as I had seen him on hundreds of newscasts over the years (back when there were only three networks and reporters were much more famous). I made the mistake of asking the reporter why he was there… and I got a long diatribe about how he had been “put out to pasture” (just like an old horse) in a remote field office, waiting for stories to break – but they never did. He then told me in no uncertain terms how much he hated West Virginia. Coming from Arizona, that was the first time I had ever heard anything negative about the state, but apparently, that reporter was not alone with his sentiments - and homebuilders got the message. I share this story because West Virginia has seen one of the largest inventory drops in the country (down 51%) since 2019. “Crash Bro,” Nick Gerli, shared the below chart, comparing 2019 to 2026 housing inventory changes in every state – and the takeaways are fascinating.Read More

Woohoo! Another Financial Crisis Is Coming – And It’s Gonna Be Bad!

“What’s good for General Motors is good for America!” That is a slight bastardization of a quote famously uttered by GM’s CEO in 1953 – and he was largely right. What is ironic, though, is that the opposite is true for the mortgage industry (and for real estate).Read More

Great News About Inflation! 8 Inflation Facts Every Agent Should Know

Almost nothing impacts interest rates as much as inflation. This is because bond investors (who control interest rates) demand higher yields (rates) when inflation runs hotter. Agents and mortgage lenders alike should care about inflation because lower rates drive homebuying demand – something we saw take place directly in November and December in response to falling rates. NAR economist Lawrence Yun often reminds us that as many as 5.5 million more homebuyers qualify for mortgages when rates drop 1%, and 10% of those people jump into the housing market. So – this is why everyone should be ecstatic about the significant declines in inflation we’re seeing.Read More

No, FHA Is NOT The New Subprime; Foreclosures Aren’t Surging; Immigrants Did Not Dominate FHA

I frequently see posts about FHA becoming America’s new subprime crisis waiting to happen, particularly regarding down payment assistance loans that allow borrowers to buy a house with very little money out of pocket. So, while I do love the focus on borrowers with no skin in the game, as that was a major cause of the 2008 crisis, the math doesn’t support the doom and gloom.Read More

Discussing Potential Appraisal Issues When Offers Go Out; “Appraisal Gap Strategy”

This is one more reminder that the markets have already priced in the Fed’s impending rate cuts. And that waiting for rates to fall further is often costly.Read More

Mortgage Delinquencies Are NOT Going to Crash The Housing Market; We’re Not Even Close to 2008!

Housing crash doom porn remains the biggest problem in real estate.Read More

Why Misleading Housing Data Will Make You Panic

The median home price increased by 3% from last month, so woohoo, right? NO! The MBS Highway pointed out today that it is primarily because of a higher percentage of more expensive homes sold.Read More

Homebuying Conditions Hit All-Time Low – A Very Good Thing, Indeed!

The housing market has never been this slow or stagnant. So, if you have made it through this market, you can make it through anything. In addition, it looks like we have nowhere to go but up. If the market even returns halfway to average volume (not back to normal, just halfway to “normal”), we will all be swamped in business.Read More

Low Rates Move Homes! Beating The Buydown Horse Again

Buyers are in fact more rate-sensitive than ever before. We have never seen a market where purchase volume is so immediately influenced by interest rate changes. The good news is that this means that we can all expect buyers to swarm back into the market if there is a large rate drop.Read More

The 3 Forces Battling For Direction Of Housing Market; Fed Follows The Market

Myth: The Fed Sets Long-Term (30-Year) Interest Rates. Fact: The Fed Follows The Market. Mortgage rates fell 3/8% over the first week of June – even though the Fed didn’t […]Read More

7 Reasons Why The Fed Will Be Forced To Lower Rates (Reasons That Few People Consider)

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is terrified. On the one hand, he desperately wants to fend off inflation, so his legacy is not one of pure disdain like that of Arthur Burns (the Fed Chair from the 1970s). But – on the other hand, today’s high rates threaten to crash numerous sectors of our government and our economy – and ALL of those crashes could usher in another financial Armageddon.Read More

Protected: Housing Market Update

There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.Read More

Waiving Appraisal Contingencies; Property Tax Appeals; Uh Oh – STAGFLATION!

Charles Dickens famously wrote: “It was hottest of markets, it was the coldest of markets…” Or something like that. And – that is precisely what we are seeing across the 9 states in which we do business. Some markets are still seeing bidding wars no matter how high rates go, and some are seeing price reductions and stale inventory.Read More