Tag Archive for: housing market

A Debt Ceiling Default Will CRUSH Housing, Mortgages, and … the Entire World Economy!

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The dreaded debt ceiling crisis has been in the news now for a few months, and it is scaring the heck out of everyone for a very good reason. If the debt ceiling is not raised by early June, home sales will come to a standstill, mortgage rates will shoot through the roof, and the […]Read More

Why Did Rates Shoot UP 1/2% Recently?

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Buyers Immediately Leave Market When Rates Move Higher One of the most surprising aspects of the rate increases we have been watching over the past year is how quickly buyers and borrowers respond to the increases. We all of course expect to see less refinance and purchase activity in response to higher rates. But, what […]Read More

Putting the “Median Home Price” Nonsense to Bed – Once and For All

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MEDIAN PIZZA PRICE PLUMMETED AT JVM! We are in a literal state of panic here at JVM because the median price of pizza has dropped like a rock over the last year – and we are pretty sure it is a sign of a total meltdown in the pizza market! In 2021, we only ordered […]Read More

Market Shockingly Hot; Fast Closes Are A Thing Again; Out Of State Lender Horror Story

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Horror Story of the Month A buyer came to us recently after making offers for over two months and losing out on every one. He was using an out-of-state lender that needed 35 days to close. We pre-approved him in a day and he got his offer accepted the next day. What we did differently: […]Read More

The Dreaded “Declining Market” Box On Appraisals! Ignorance? Pure Evil? Or – Appraisers Just Doing Their Job?

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Median = Misleading Chevron is moving its entire headquarters complex from California to the much more business-friendly Houston, TX area. I happen to know a lot of Chevron employees – and what is interesting is that most of the younger and newer employees are moving to Houston too, as they don’t really have a choice. […]Read More

Housing Data Remains Strong – Despite “Imminent Crash”

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Steven Van Metre is a macro analyst and financial planner who has been predicting an “imminent housing crash” for over a year, including here, here, here, here, and… here. Despite Steven’s constant “sky is falling” rhetoric, I actually enjoy his videos, as they are data-laden and always interesting. I am bringing him up today because […]Read More

The Cost of Waiting To Buy a Home

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Purchasing a home is a significant financial decision that requires careful consideration and planning. For this reason, it is reasonable to expect prospective buyers to get cold feet when faced with a less than ideal homebuying market. But does this mean you should pull out of the housing market to wait for the perfect time […]Read More

Fannie Mae Made Rates WAY LOWER for First-Time Homebuyers!

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In mid-November, both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac made homebuying ridiculously less expensive for many, if not most first-time homebuyers! And – I was remiss for not blogging about it sooner. 13 Factors That Impact Your Interest Rate! I often blog about the 13 Factors that impact someone’s mortgage rate – reminding readers that there […]Read More

Let’s Talk About The Great 2018 Housing Crash!

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I remember 2018 all too well, as it was one of the worst years in the history of the housing market! Values crashed as much as 30% in some areas, and the entire U.S. economy was in a free fall. Oh wait… I don’t remember that because it never happened. It was just predicted over […]Read More

The Housing Market Is Most Definitely NOT Frozen!

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America’s housing market did not fully bottom out until 2012 – a full four years after the 2008 mortgage meltdown. But, here is what is interesting: even when the market was at its absolute slowest ever in 2012, there were still 8,000 transactions closing every month within about a 60+ mile radius from my office. […]Read More

Zillow: Prices Down 0.1%! NOT. A. CRASH.

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Good Gravy! “Good gravy” is what my South Dakota grandma used to say whenever she saw or heard something absurd – and she would be screaming that now if she saw all the headlines alluding to a “housing crash.” Zillow’s Latest Terrifying Report (Is Not Terrifying At All) The following is from this article from […]Read More

Car Shortages to Surpluses Overnight; Things Change VERY QUICKLY

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I saw this tweet over the weekend: “The auto industry collapse has just begun and this would be one of the worst times for you to buy a vehicle. In a normal market (pre-2020), Auto Loan delinquencies hovered at 2 to 3%. Today, that number is exploding with nearly 1 in every 4 loans in default in Washington DC.” The author of the tweet is Graham Stephan, a young investor and car enthusiast, and he may or may not be right.Read More

Do Price Reductions Signal Depreciation?

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Price reductions do not signal depreciation… yet.. and they won’t until we see people actually sell their homes for less than what they paid for them.Read More

Why The Fed Desperately Wants to TANK the Housing Market!

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One of my favorite macro pundits, Alfonso Peccatiello (former $20 billion fund manager who goes by “Alf”) recently tweeted this: “The biggest group of consumers in the US owns houses, not stocks. And this is why taming the animal spirits in the housing market is paramount important for the Fed. And they will succeed…” He […]Read More

Getting Rich From Dry Powder (Cash On Hand)

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You don’t need to be a wealthy investor to take advantage of massive opportunities in a down market. You just need to make sure you have some dry powder (cash on hand) – and be ready to take the plunge when opportunities arise.Read More

Is The Fed Trying to Tank The Housing Market – Or Just Slow It Down?

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Agents in many of the markets we work in are telling us that they are now finally seeing a slowdown in the market. One agent who lists high-end homes in the Bay Area told me that he “used to tell sellers to remodel their kitchens, update flooring, repaint walls, and spruce up landscaping before listing […]Read More

Why There Is Still No Housing Bubble

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Everyone Thinks Higher Rates Will Kill The Housing Market We shared this blog, Higher Interest Rates Did Not Slow Housing Appreciation; Why?, with our database in our monthly newsletter a few weeks ago, and I got this response from a past borrower: “You really think that if the Fed raises rates seven or eight more […]Read More

Higher Interest Rates Did Not Slow Housing Appreciation; WHY?

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A surge in home prices continues despite the fact that interest rates have climbed significantly – and will likely continue to climb at least in the near term. So, the question is, why do prices continue to surge in the face of higher rates? Two Reasons: (1) High demand because of demographics; and (2) Low inventory.Read More

Insanely WRONG Predictions! More Coming Soon; Please Ignore Them :)

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CoreLogic predicted home prices would decline by 6.6% in 2021 – and they were off a little. Home prices appreciated by almost 20% in 2021! What makes this enormous error so fascinating is the fact that CoreLogic is considered to be the granddaddy of data collection and analytics when it comes to the housing market. […]Read More

Zillow Exits iBuying & Proves ALL Is Right With the World

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BETTING ON CANADA! In the 2010 Olympics, Canada played the U.S. for the gold medal in hockey – and I upset a hockey fan and friend by betting on Canada. My bet on Canada was really a bet on “efficient markets” because Canada’s team had a larger aggregate payroll in the NHL. So, efficient markets […]Read More

The Real Reason Zillow Stopped Buying Homes & Why It’s Good For Housing

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Zillow announced yesterday that they are no longer buying homes (through the end of the year). It was all over the headlines, and numerous people sent me links to the announcement. At first, I thought: “oh, no… I wonder if their algorithms are predicting a softer housing market…” But then I started to see links […]Read More

The One Thing That Can CRASH The Housing Market!

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I have repeatedly blogged about reasons why we are not in a housing bubble: Demographics & Demand: Homebuying demographics are peaking, as a surge of millennials is just now hitting peak homebuying age (early 30s). This is in sharp contrast to the 2008 housing meltdown when homebuying demographics hit all-time lows. Supply Issues: (A) Builders […]Read More

There’s A HUGE GLUT OF WOOD, So Why’s Lumber So Expensive?

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On Friday, I blogged about whether or not borrowers can roll their closing costs into their loans. Several savvy agents responded and pointed out that I forgot one more way borrowers can get credits for closing costs: agents can credit a portion of their commissions too if they so desire.  We never recommend that to […]Read More

5 Major COVID Effects After One Year; Way Hotter Housing Market – WHY?

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It was one year ago this month that the World Health Organization declared that the “Coronavirus” (old-fashioned name for COVID) was a “pandemic.” And holy smokes has the world changed (understatement of the year). Here are some of COVID’s major effects on the Real Estate and Mortgage Industries: 1. INTEREST RATES Even though rates have […]Read More

Why CA Is So “Hot;” Median Home Prices

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MEDIAN HOME PRICES If the CA housing market was not appreciating at all, but every buyer suddenly decided they would only buy 4,000 square foot, $1 million homes in 2021 after only buying 2,000 square foot, $500,000 homes in 2020, the median home price would double. And this would lead many people to mistakenly believe […]Read More

2021 Predictions: Rates, Inflation, Housing & Affordability

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I often point out how difficult, impossible and/or ineffective it is to make predictions for anything nowadays. This is because we are in uncharted waters when it comes to this much Fed and government involvement in our economy, making it impossible for anyone to predict accurately b/c there are no precedents to rely on. BUT […]Read More

4 Reasons NOT to Fear “The Coming Tsunami of Foreclosures”

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Forbes.com recently published The Serious Disconnect Between A Hot Residential Real Estate Market And The Coming Tsunami of Foreclosures. And I thought, here we go again… The author expresses serious concerns about the frothy housing market, with both sales volume and prices increasing at double-digit rates. The market may in fact be overheating, BUT the […]Read More

6 More Reasons Why Inventory Is Low; Not What You Think

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I recently blogged about the coming “Nuclear Winter” for housing, focusing primarily on a massive pending inventory shortage. I am beating that dead horse one final time for several reasons: (1) it is a major issue that will impact us all; (2) this is excellent info for buyers to know when home shopping so they […]Read More

3 Reasons Why COVID Made Housing A Far Better Bet! Ain’t No Bubble Here!

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Market-Pundit-Extraordinaire – Barry Habib – was on The National Real Estate Post again today – screaming that the media is wrong! (again). I love quoting Habib b/c his predictions prove accurate far more often than those of any other pundit that I follow (and I follow many). NO BUBBLE HERE – ELDERLY PEOPLE STAYING PUT […]Read More

Mark Cuban Was Right; SF’s Death & Revival; IKEA & Honey Badgers

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A few weeks ago I blogged about The Death of New York City, citing another blog by James Altucher that set out reasons why NYC is not going to recover: the loss of business opportunities; the loss of cultural events; and the loss of restaurants. I also mentioned how Dallas Mavericks owner and Shark Tank […]Read More

Housing Market – Not All Rosy; Bumps & Volatility

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TOO OPTIMISTIC ABOUT HOUSING? “Stick to mortgages, Jay!” I touted the strength of the housing market numerous times over the last several months, and both borrowers and agents told me they thought I was too optimistic in light of all the pandemic news. One borrower told me to “stick to mortgages and leave the economic […]Read More

Home Values – This Ain’t 2008! WHY? Inventory and Demographics

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I was interviewed yesterday by a prominent financial reporter who is, for obvious reasons, mired in the very “news” I suggested avoiding in my Wednesday Blog. B/c she is so caught up in all of the negative news, she seems convinced that the housing market could easily see a repeat of 2008 when values dropped […]Read More

Why People Remain Bullish On The Housing Market; Foreign Buyers

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There are numerous signs that the purchase market is coming back to life. Anecdotally, the number of pre-approval requests in our office are up over 50% from our March and April averages. The number of ratified contracts rolling in has surged to levels not seen since last spring, with 13 coming in last Monday alone. […]Read More

“Biggest Housing Boom In History Has Just Begun”

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The above subject line is the title of this Forbes.com article. The author focuses on the supply of houses, shifting demographics and massive pent up demand. From the 1950s through the early 2000s, an average of 1.5 million new homes were constructed every year in the U.S. But, over the last ten years, we have […]Read More

“Biggest Housing Boom In History Has Just Begun” SFR Rentals = Future

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The above subject line is the title of this Forbes.com article. The author focuses on the supply of houses, shifting demographics and massive pent up demand. From the 1950s through the early 2000s, an average of 1.5 million new homes were constructed every year in the U.S. But, over the last ten years, we have […]Read More

Which Week Is the “Black Friday” For Homebuying?

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  This was the title of a Housing Wire article I read last week. I am lifting this directly from the article: “Apparently, the best time to purchase a house is the first week of Fall. This time of year, buyers have less competition, more price reductions and greater inventory, according to realtor.com. Out of […]Read More

Rates Fell Again – Why? Unexpected, As Per Usual

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Rates have moved steadily lower over the last week. And, as per usual, nobody saw it coming. The unexpected news that pushed rates down included the following: Nancy Pelosi’s Impeachment Inquiry. Major uncertainty in both political and economic arenas tends to push rates down. Waning Consumer Confidence. Traders watch these surveys closely and react sharply […]Read More

Fannie & Freddie Breaking Off From Government Control?

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INTEREST RATES COULD SHOOT UP AT ANYTIME We often remind both borrowers and agents that interest rates are generally expected to remain low for some time, but that does not mean they cannot shoot up unexpectedly. Our point is that both buyers and current mortgage holders should take advantage of today’s low rates now before […]Read More

Home Sales Fall Despite Falling Rates; Is the End Finally Here? We Can Only Hope :)

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TULIP MANIA In the 1630s, the Dutch experienced one of the world’s first major financial bubbles – Tulip Mania. They were all convinced that the price of the exotic (at the time) tulip bulbs would increase forever, not taking into account how easy it was to reproduce them and how the ridiculously high prices were […]Read More

Are We About To Enter a Buyers’ Market?

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Home sales are below last year’s levels, home values are appreciating at a slower pace, and there are reports showing purchasing demand softening. This has some thinking we may be entering a buyers’ market after sellers have had the upper hand for the past several years. Is this really happening? The market has definitely softened. […]Read More

How To Get Your Offer Accepted In California

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3 tips to hone your offer’s competitive edge in today’s hot market  California has one of the most competitive real estate markets in the country due to a continuing housing shortage. A limited supply combined with a high demand creates the perfect recipe for a seller’s market. That is the real estate reality in today’s current market. As […]Read More

Have Housing Prices Peaked? Probably Not, After Inflation

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Many people mistakenly believe housing prices have surged out of control in recent years and may have peaked. The reality is that in most areas they are only back to the levels they hit previously in 2006. More importantly, if we adjust for inflation since 2006, housing prices are actually 16% below their 2006 peaks […]Read More

Why Young People Need To Buy Real Estate

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We have many clients who come to us concerned about timing the market. While it is of course very advantageous to buy at the bottom, the reality is that nobody can truly know what the market will do over the next few years. The more important thing for young homebuyers to remember is that property […]Read More

Millennials Are Coming/Are Here; Will Dominate Market; Be Ready

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I have written several times about the need to be ready for “Millennials,” (young adults who came of age around the year 2000). They are here, and if you are not ready, your business will die. To be ready, you need to be especially tech and social media (Yelp, Facebook, etc.) savvy, and you need […]Read More