Tag Archive for: housing market

CA’s EXTRAORDINARY Weather; Morgan Stanley: “Dude, Home Prices Aren’t Crashing; Stop Waiting…”

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I. Woohoo – Rates Fell! The 10-Year Treasury yield fell a “whopping” 4 basis points (4/100th) this morning…and the mortgage industry cheered (even though mortgage rates barely budged). Why cheer for a minuscule improvement? Rates rose 3/8% this month on top of already high rates – so even the tiniest reversal from trend is very welcome news. II. California’s Weather Is Beyond “Extraordinary.” (Why It Will Save California) I know a young couple making $700,000 per year in CA who could work anywhere because their computer science skills are so marketable. They refuse to move though because they are “happy to pay the good weather tax” (about $60,000 per year). This same couple bought a veritable “shanty” of a house in San Mateo for $2.2 million because they “could not afford to buy in Palo Alto.” CA agents often tell me I make fun of CA too much – so today I am sharing a graphic that shows just how extraordinary CA’s weather is. People who haven't lived here don’t fully understand, and those who have lived here their entire lives take it for granted. This post on X displays a map of the U.S. showing that the CA coast is the ONLY place in the entire U.S. (and most of the world, for that matter) where the weather is in the temperate 65-to-87-degree zone YEAR-ROUND. As someone who plays in that weather every single day when I am in CA, I can attest to just how wonderful it is. I love Texas, and everything about it, but CA’s extraordinary weather is why the state will likely never collapse into the abyss like so many critics keep telling us. A lot of people are willing to pay extra to live in it.Read More

Reasons For Optimism? Why I Hate Price-Per-Square-Foot Analyses; Appraisers Only Call Out What They See

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Most of the world’s analysts are still on the inflation-and-higher-rates train. But there are still a lot of analysts who believe we’ll see lower rates this year, like the gentleman I referenced yesterday – James E. Thorne.Read More

Today Is The Slowest Housing Market In History – For A Reason Nobody Considers

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Today we are in the slowest housing market and it is even slower than 1995’s brutal market in relative terms. Today’s market is also even slower than the notoriously slow 2008 and 2011 markets.Read More

Appraisers Are Much Harsher In Slow Markets; And “No, WSJ, LOs Are Not Ripping Off Borrowers!”

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I. Are Appraisers Giving Bigger Condition Adjustments in 2026? There is a neighborhood about a mile west of my CA home that crashes when the market slows. I blog about it often, in fact, because it is near a very busy freeway. Buyers are willing to overlook freeway noise when markets are hot, and inventory is scarce, but not at all when the market softens. Appraiser Ryan Lundquist recently posted this blog: ARE APPRAISERS GIVING BIGGER CONDITION ADJUSTMENTS IN 2026? And the answer is yes because buyers are and can be far more demanding in slower markets. This is the case for all adverse issues affecting a property – poor condition, lack of updates, deferred landscaping, poor curb appeal, or adverse exterior influences (nearby traffic, commercial or industrial areas, schools, etc.). Sellers and agents should expect larger adjustments for adverse issues in slower markets.Read More

SF Housing Market Left For Dead Roars Back Unexpectedly; 5 Takeaways

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In 2023, San Francisco was an absolute basket case – having fallen from the coolest place on earth pre-COVID to a largely vacant, crime-ridden hellhole. Read More

Rates Fall Back to the Sweet Spot After Oil Crash

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Oil Prices (WTI) Plummeted To $92 Per Barrel From $104 Per Barrel On Monday. Interest rates followed and are now almost 3/8% LOWER than they were a few weeks ago. This unprecedented plunge in oil prices indicates again that very astute oil traders believe the Iran war will not escalate (again, huge investors with money on the line are often more accurate predictors of world events than “expert” pundits).Read More

2019 vs. 2026 Housing Inventory; So Many Interesting Takeaways!

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In 1985, when I was motorcycling across America, I stopped at a dive bar in West Virginia for lunch because it was the only place around. It had that depressing, all-too-quiet, seen-it’s-better-days, worn out, musty lunchtime atmosphere that I’d seen at similar establishments all across the country. The only patrons were a few state construction workers grabbing lunch, a couple of local alcoholics, and a very bitter CBS reporter nursing a Bloody Mary. I recognized the reporter instantly, as I had seen him on hundreds of newscasts over the years (back when there were only three networks and reporters were much more famous). I made the mistake of asking the reporter why he was there… and I got a long diatribe about how he had been “put out to pasture” (just like an old horse) in a remote field office, waiting for stories to break – but they never did. He then told me in no uncertain terms how much he hated West Virginia. Coming from Arizona, that was the first time I had ever heard anything negative about the state, but apparently, that reporter was not alone with his sentiments - and homebuilders got the message. I share this story because West Virginia has seen one of the largest inventory drops in the country (down 51%) since 2019. “Crash Bro,” Nick Gerli, shared the below chart, comparing 2019 to 2026 housing inventory changes in every state – and the takeaways are fascinating.Read More

Woohoo! Another Financial Crisis Is Coming – And It’s Gonna Be Bad!

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“What’s good for General Motors is good for America!” That is a slight bastardization of a quote famously uttered by GM’s CEO in 1953 – and he was largely right. What is ironic, though, is that the opposite is true for the mortgage industry (and for real estate).Read More

Great News About Inflation! 8 Inflation Facts Every Agent Should Know

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Almost nothing impacts interest rates as much as inflation. This is because bond investors (who control interest rates) demand higher yields (rates) when inflation runs hotter. Agents and mortgage lenders alike should care about inflation because lower rates drive homebuying demand – something we saw take place directly in November and December in response to falling rates. NAR economist Lawrence Yun often reminds us that as many as 5.5 million more homebuyers qualify for mortgages when rates drop 1%, and 10% of those people jump into the housing market. So – this is why everyone should be ecstatic about the significant declines in inflation we’re seeing.Read More

No, FHA Is NOT The New Subprime; Foreclosures Aren’t Surging; Immigrants Did Not Dominate FHA

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I frequently see posts about FHA becoming America’s new subprime crisis waiting to happen, particularly regarding down payment assistance loans that allow borrowers to buy a house with very little money out of pocket. So, while I do love the focus on borrowers with no skin in the game, as that was a major cause of the 2008 crisis, the math doesn’t support the doom and gloom.Read More

Discussing Potential Appraisal Issues When Offers Go Out; “Appraisal Gap Strategy”

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This is one more reminder that the markets have already priced in the Fed’s impending rate cuts. And that waiting for rates to fall further is often costly.Read More

Mortgage Delinquencies Are NOT Going to Crash The Housing Market; We’re Not Even Close to 2008!

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Housing crash doom porn remains the biggest problem in real estate.Read More

Why Misleading Housing Data Will Make You Panic

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The median home price increased by 3% from last month, so woohoo, right? NO! The MBS Highway pointed out today that it is primarily because of a higher percentage of more expensive homes sold.Read More

Homebuying Conditions Hit All-Time Low – A Very Good Thing, Indeed!

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The housing market has never been this slow or stagnant. So, if you have made it through this market, you can make it through anything. In addition, it looks like we have nowhere to go but up. If the market even returns halfway to average volume (not back to normal, just halfway to “normal”), we will all be swamped in business.Read More