In 1985, when I was motorcycling across America, I stopped at a dive bar in West Virginia for lunch because it was the only place around.
It had that depressing, all-too-quiet, seen-it’s-better-days, worn out, musty lunchtime atmosphere that I’d seen at similar establishments all across the country.
The only patrons were a few state construction workers grabbing lunch, a couple of local alcoholics, and a very bitter CBS reporter nursing a Bloody Mary.
I recognized the reporter instantly, as I had seen him on hundreds of newscasts over the years (back when there were only three networks and reporters were much more famous).
I made the mistake of asking the reporter why he was there… and I got a long diatribe about how he had been “put out to pasture” (just like an old horse) in a remote field office, waiting for stories to break – but they never did.
He then told me in no uncertain terms how much he hated West Virginia.
Coming from Arizona, that was the first time I had ever heard anything negative about the state, but apparently, that reporter was not alone with his sentiments – and homebuilders got the message.
I share this story because West Virginia has seen one of the largest inventory drops in the country (down 51%) since 2019.
“Crash Bro,” Nick Gerli, shared the below chart, comparing 2019 to 2026 housing inventory changes in every state – and the takeaways are fascinating.
Housing Inventory Changes Comparison: 2019 to 2026
Takeaways
1. Expect The Unexpected. I often remind readers that nobody can anticipate what will happen in any market. And West Virginia and Maine are two excellent examples. Homebuilders built very few homes in either state because they did not anticipate the surge in demand that would result from the ability to work remotely. But both states now host huge numbers of remote workers from the DC and New England metro areas.
2. Ignore Small Outliers. North Dakota is down a whopping 50%! But that is because they only had 6 homes for sale in 2019 vs 3 homes today. I exaggerate a little, but my point holds. Shockingly, remote workers are not clamoring to move to North Dakota.
3. Politicians Make Poor People (First-Time Buyers) Poorer. High-tax, high-fee, and high-regulation states (CA, IL, PA, and NY) have seen massive drop-offs in inventory – which of course props up prices for existing homeowners at the expense of first-time buyers.
CA, for example, makes building very difficult with its fees and regulations. Its property tax system makes existing homeowners unwilling to sell. And rent control laws scare developers away in droves. IL, PA, and NY are similar. It is fascinating to see these states experience falling inventory in the face of tremendous out-migration – an indication of just how severe their building restrictions are.
In contrast, states like TX, FL, AZ, and TN make building very easy – at the expense of existing homeowners, but to the enormous benefit of first-time buyers.
4. No Crisis Coming. Only 11 states have more inventory today than in 2019. And even the worst of those states are still well under “6 months of supply” (“balanced” inventory is considered to be 4 to 6 months of supply).
As a reminder, we need a massive surge in inventory to foster a housing crisis, and we’re miles away from any type of surge. Yes, foreclosure activity is up, but it is up from very low levels.
And foreclosures are not even close to 2009 levels – when we had almost 3 million foreclosure filings (2.23% of housing stock). In 2025, we saw about 370,000 foreclosure filings (0.26% of housing stock).
In 2009, we also saw an astounding 12 months of inventory on the market. We won’t see this again because lending guidelines have changed so much.
TLDR: States that make it easy for builders to build make it much easier for first-time buyers to get into the housing market and experience the American Dream. And for this reason, surges in inventory can be seen as a very good thing – unless you’re a boomer who bought a home for 7 raspberries and you’re planning to retire on your appreciation.
