Tag Archive for: the fed

Baseball’s $700 Million Dollar Man’s Taking A Huge Risk! I Hope The Dodgers Are Buying Rental Homes!

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The sports world was on fire this week with the announcement that Shohei Ohtani got a whopping $700 million contract to play for the Dodgers! The contract was an all-time record and exceeded estimates by $200 million! BUT, Ohtani is actually “only” getting $2 million per year, making everyone wonder 'how will the poor man even survive?'Read More

Rates To Shoot Up 2% Early Next Year, Per Felix Zulauf… Before Plummeting (Along With Stocks)

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According to Felix Zulauf, renowned fund manager and macro-analyst, the 10 Year Treasury yield could spike to 5.5% early next year (which could push mortgage rates up almost 2% from today’s levels) - before plummeting over the rest of the year. Zulauf also believes that the S&P 500 could easily crash by as much as 40% off its peak.Read More

BOTH Stocks and Bonds Soar In November; Confusion or Goldilocks Economy?

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We saw something very unusual in November: both stocks and bonds had record months! This Reuters article – Average 60/40 portfolio has best month in November since 1991 – BofA […]Read More

Why Do We HATE Each Other So Much? And Why Does It Matter For Housing?

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America has not been this contentious or polarized since the Civil War – as most readers know. Many people blame social media for this polarization. The ability to post online without being face-to-face and the ability to post anonymously – seems to foster much more contentious and polarizing discourse.Read More

World To Drown in U.S. Debt – Pushing Rates WAY UP; Moody’s Downgrades U.S. Debt; Bond Auctions Fail! But Rates Fall??? Why???

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EVERYONE and I mean EVERYONE is in a panic over our massive deficits and the subsequent borrowing by the U.S. to cover them – because it has the potential to push interest rates through the roof! Last week alone, Moody's downgraded U.S. Debt (or lowered its bond rating over deficit concerns) and a Treasury auction "failed," meaning there were not enough buyers for our Treasury bonds at the offered rates.Read More

Why I Was So WRONG About Rates; Why It Matters So Much

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If you google “wrongness,” you’ll see a picture of me screaming “Rates will fall by March of ’23!” I am wrong a lot actually and am not afraid to admit it because it makes for great learning and blog fodder. For example, I was wrong about when rates will fall, and I was wrong when I said that the Fed would not raise rates again after its June pause.Read More

Rates Hit New Record Highs; China’s Demise Part II – What To Do?

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The Ten Year Treasury Yield hit its highest level since 2007! Here are some of the reasons: Waiting On The Fed. Bond prices fell and yields/rates rose, as investors are anxiously waiting […]Read More

Big Short Guys Not Shorting! Excess Bond Supply NOT Pushing Up Yields; Fed Does Not Control Interest Rates

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Here are a few random but very important points. BIG SHORT GUYS ARE NOT SHORTING HOUSING! In this recent Milkshakes Markets Madness podcast, famed macro analyst and fund manager Brent Johnson mentions that […]Read More

Watch Out For Jobs Reports & Why Janet Yellen Drives Analysts Crazy!

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The Big Drop in Rates Will Come When We Get a Negative Jobs Report The big move in interest rates that everyone is expecting at some point will very likely […]Read More

Reddit Bubble Boys Wrong; Dollar Not Going Anywhere; Bedrooms Need Windows

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Here are a few unrelated updates and observations for a Monday. Bedrooms Need Windows I blogged recently about “What Is A Bedroom” (for appraisal purposes) and several readers responded to […]Read More

7 Reasons Why Analysts Are FURIOUS With The Fed!

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I have never seen so much frustration and anger expressed over policy errors as I have over the last week – and it is all because the Fed is poised to raise the Fed Funds Rate 0.25% today. This will bring us to a 16-year high in what has been the fastest rate hiking cycle in history, and it will likely bring our economy to its knees.Read More

Why We NEED A RECESSION & Soon!

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Marshmallow.com = My Favorite App! I love marshmallows. And – every three to four months when my craving gets bad, I order marshmallows right to my door from marshmallow.com. And […]Read More

Fed Raises Rates; Mortgage Rates PLUMMET; Why? JVM’s Here to Stay!

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JVM was officially founded in 2006, and effectively founded in 1999 under another name by my wife, Heejin – with much of her operation carrying over to JVM in 2006. All this is to say that we are definitely here to stay, as we have ridden through several very serious downturns with nary a scratch, and we are now stronger than ever.Read More

Europe Raised Rates By 1/2%, and Rates FELL

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The European Central Bank (ECB) raised its short-term rate (its equivalent to the Fed Funds Rate that the Fed raises here in the U.S.) by a full 1/2% yesterday. It shocked many observers because Europe is facing a banking crisis that is potentially much worse than what we face here in the U.S. (for reasons I won’t go into for brevity’s sake).Read More