Tag Archive for: the fed

7 Reasons Why Analysts Are FURIOUS With The Fed!

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TOP TEN AI PROMPTS TO SAVE HUNDREDS OF HOURS OF WORK The above headline was the point of this excellent tweet thread. I highly recommend it for anyone who is still trying to figure out how to use AI. JUMBO LOANS GOING BY THE WAYSIDE? Rob Chrisman, the mortgage industry’s premier blogger, wrote this yesterday:  “On […]Read More

Why We NEED A RECESSION & Soon!

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MARSHMALLOW.COM = MY FAVORITE APP! I love marshmallows. And – every three to four months when my craving gets bad, I order marshmallows right to my door from marshmallow.com. And – it is awesome! They show up the same day, and the marshmallows are always fresh and delicious. They come in four flavors (chocolate, vanilla, […]Read More

Fed Raises Rates; Mortgage Rates PLUMMET; Why? JVM’s Here to Stay!

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JVM’S HERE TO STAY; BACKUP FOR BANKS PULLING OUT JVM was officially founded in 2006, and effectively founded in 1999 under another name by my wife, Heejin – with much of her operation carrying over to JVM in 2006. All this is to say that we are definitely here to stay, as we have ridden […]Read More

Europe Raised Rates by 1/2%, and Rates FELL

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The European Central Bank (ECB) raised its short-term rate (its equivalent to the Fed Funds Rate that the Fed raises here in the U.S.) by a full 1/2% yesterday. It shocked many observers because Europe is facing a banking crisis that is potentially much worse than what we face here in the U.S. (for reasons […]Read More

Rates Plummet! Barry Was RIGHT! THIS IS HUGE!

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WHO THE HELL IS BARRY? Barry Habib is the founder of MBS Highway, a subscription service that thousands of mortgage industry insiders subscribe to at a cost of $120 to $170 per month – and it is worth it! Barry and his team go way out of their way to provide value on every front […]Read More

Why DEFLATION Is Now Likely and SO SCARY!

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HERE’S WHAT’S SCARY: MY NEIGHBOR WAITING TO BUY HIS MERCEDES! You have no idea how scary that is! My neighbor grew up poor in Boston, played college football at the highest levels, and is now a very successful enterprise software salesman. He is also very cheap – so cheap in fact that he went without […]Read More

Inflation Down; Rates Down & More To Come; The Fed Does NOT Control Interest Rates

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Inflation (CPI) reports came in lower than expected yesterday – and that pushed rates lower because inflation expectations are probably the biggest single driver of interest rates. According to this tweet by MacroAlf, the lower-than-expected inflation report surprised 65 out of 67 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. It did not, however, surprise Barry Habib or Jeff […]Read More

THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IN REAL ESTATE Right Now – And How To Overcome It!

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BARRY HABIB HATES CNBC’S DIANA OLICK! Mr. Habib is one of the macro pundits I cite very often because he is correct so often. “Hate” may also be too strong of a word, as Mr. Habib is very professional, but he clearly has tremendous disdain for Ms. Olick – and this is why: Ms. Olick […]Read More

Much Lower Interest Rates By March; Why & What It Means

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On Thursday, CPI (inflation data) came in lower than expected – and we saw one of the largest one-day rate drops ever. I of course blogged about it here: THIS IS HUGE! Inflation & Rates PLUMMET. My biggest takeaway though wasn’t just that inflation and rates dropped; it was to point out how correct the […]Read More

History Of Interest Rates Part II (50 Years; 1 Year); Perspective Again!

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Several agents have recently requested updates to the History of Interest Rates/Perspective blog I wrote in early May. They of course want to show clients that today’s 4%-ish (jumbo) and 5%-ish rates are really low by historical standards – which is a point I make often. There are two charts below: one shows mortgage rates […]Read More

Supply Chains Untangling; Inflation Waning? Who Was Right?

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For much of 2021 we were shown photos of container ship parking lots drifting far out to sea – with dire warnings of inventory crises and mass shortages. But today, Leonard Steinberg shared this in his Compass blog:Read More

Why Did Interest Rates Fall After The Fed Ostensibly Made Them Rise?

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The Fed recently raised rates, but interest rates fell in response. This is something we see so often that I had to blog about it – to again allay some of the confusion about the Fed’s rate increases. Rates are way up now, but recently they fell at least 1/8% AFTER the Fed announced the […]Read More

When Will Rates Fall?

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I had an acquaintance who was a very successful regional homebuilder in the 1990s and early 2000s. By early 2005, he was so certain we were in a housing bubble that he started to short the major homebuilders (Lennar, Toll Brothers, Pulte, etc.). By “shorting,” he was betting that stocks would fall.Read More

Inflation; Mercedes S-Class Cars; Here To Stay? Does It Matter?

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MERCEDES S-CLASS SEDANS COST 1/2 OF WHAT THEY COST IN 1979 Leonard Steinberg wrote this in his excellent blog last week: “In 1979 a Mercedes S-Class cost about $34,000. Today about four decades later, an S-Class Mercedes sells for around $111,000, more than triple.” He was illuminating just how much inflation there already has been […]Read More

Rates Shot Way Up Yesterday; Why? Will They Come Down Again?

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Interest rates shot way up yesterday – catching most of the industry by surprise (again). This is because rates have held amazingly steady for the last several months – but now rates are back up to levels we have not seen since early July. WHY DID RATES GO UP? The primary reason is a “Taper […]Read More

Is The Fed The Wizard Of Oz (Powerless)? Why It Matters

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In the iconic movie The Wizard of Oz, all of the characters thought the Wizard was an all-powerful being who controlled everything and everyone. But, in the end, we found out that the infamous Wizard was really just an old man behind a curtain playing tricks with loudspeakers, smoke and mirrors. RENOWNED RESEARCH ANALYST SAYS […]Read More

Fed Speaks – Rates Up; Paying Off Student Loans With Mortgage; Interest-Only Loans

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Fed Chair Powell spoke yesterday and sent the bond market into a tizzy, as investors sold off their bonds and pushed rates sharply higher. What crazy thing did Powell have the audacity to say? He acknowledged that the economy is strengthening and that there is an uptick in inflation. In addition, a statement by the […]Read More

Fed: “We’ll Ignore Inflation & Keep Rates Low Forever!” Or Not

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Media outlets are abuzz with news about The Fed’s new commitment to keep rates low pretty much forever and to also change its inflation targets. This WSJ article is just one of many I saw today discussing this. So what does this mean? The Fed will no longer give credence to what is called the […]Read More

The Fed Lost Control Over Interest Rates; Now What?

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RATES AT 8 MONTH LOW Rates are at an eight-month low right now – about 1/2 percent lower than they were at their peak in October. I should add though that they still remain about 1/2 percent higher than they were last year at this time. So, did the Fed finally achieve its stated goal […]Read More