Tag Archive for: the fed

Lower Rates = More Competition For Buyers – Which Is Something Buyers Don’t Understand; Fannie Mae’s Confusing Buyers Survey

83% of consumers do NOT think now is a good to buy a house! But, at the same time, Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index just hit its highest level since March of 2022! Fannie’s Home Purchase Index simply reflects consumers’ current and forward-looking views of overall housing market conditions.Read More

Interest Rates Up Again; Trends Vs. Blips; How Worried Should We Be?

The “average interest rate” peaked at just over 8% in October. Interest rates then slid downward 1.5% over the next few months before heading back north over the last few weeks. While they remain 1% lower than where they were in October, the slide upward over the last few weeks has left many people in the real estate and mortgage world all too worried. Read More

5 Fail-Safe Recession Indicators

Three pieces of news surfaced yesterday that should have pushed interest rates through the roof! 1) Inflation (CPI) came in much hotter than expected; 2)The Fed made comments about “rates needing to stay higher to ensure inflation is tamed;” and 3)An employment report (jobless claims) came in much stronger than expected. When I saw this news surface, I thought we’d see rates climb at least 1/4% yesterday, but instead they actually fell a bit.Read More

Michael Jordan’s Brand Earns Him $330 Million Per Year, Dwarfing His NBA Earnings; Rates Back to April Levels

Michael Jordan earned $94 million just for playing basketball over the course of his entire career. Last year alone though, he made a full $330 million just from the royalties from his Jordan shoe brand (via Nike). Hence, he makes 3.5x more every year from shoe royalties than he made playing in the NBA for 15 seasons.Read More

Baseball’s $700 Million Dollar Man’s Taking A Huge Risk! I Hope The Dodgers Are Buying Rental Homes!

The sports world was on fire this week with the announcement that Shohei Ohtani got a whopping $700 million contract to play for the Dodgers! The contract was an all-time record and exceeded estimates by $200 million! BUT, Ohtani is actually “only” getting $2 million per year, making everyone wonder 'how will the poor man even survive?'Read More

Rates To Shoot Up 2% Early Next Year, Per Felix Zulauf… Before Plummeting (Along With Stocks)

According to Felix Zulauf, renowned fund manager and macro-analyst, the 10 Year Treasury yield could spike to 5.5% early next year (which could push mortgage rates up almost 2% from today’s levels) - before plummeting over the rest of the year. Zulauf also believes that the S&P 500 could easily crash by as much as 40% off its peak.Read More

BOTH Stocks and Bonds Soar In November; Confusion or Goldilocks Economy?

We saw something very unusual in November: both stocks and bonds had record months! This Reuters article – Average 60/40 portfolio has best month in November since 1991 – BofA […]Read More

Why Do We HATE Each Other So Much? And Why Does It Matter For Housing?

America has not been this contentious or polarized since the Civil War – as most readers know. Many people blame social media for this polarization. The ability to post online without being face-to-face and the ability to post anonymously – seems to foster much more contentious and polarizing discourse.Read More

World To Drown in U.S. Debt – Pushing Rates WAY UP; Moody’s Downgrades U.S. Debt; Bond Auctions Fail! But Rates Fall??? Why???

EVERYONE and I mean EVERYONE is in a panic over our massive deficits and the subsequent borrowing by the U.S. to cover them – because it has the potential to push interest rates through the roof! Last week alone, Moody's downgraded U.S. Debt (or lowered its bond rating over deficit concerns) and a Treasury auction "failed," meaning there were not enough buyers for our Treasury bonds at the offered rates.Read More

Why I Was So WRONG About Rates; Why It Matters So Much

If you google “wrongness,” you’ll see a picture of me screaming “Rates will fall by March of ’23!” I am wrong a lot actually and am not afraid to admit it because it makes for great learning and blog fodder. For example, I was wrong about when rates will fall, and I was wrong when I said that the Fed would not raise rates again after its June pause.Read More

Rates Hit New Record Highs; China’s Demise Part II – What To Do?

The Ten Year Treasury Yield hit its highest level since 2007! Here are some of the reasons: Waiting On The Fed. Bond prices fell and yields/rates rose, as investors are anxiously waiting […]Read More

Big Short Guys Not Shorting! Excess Bond Supply NOT Pushing Up Yields; Fed Does Not Control Interest Rates

Here are a few random but very important points. BIG SHORT GUYS ARE NOT SHORTING HOUSING! In this recent Milkshakes Markets Madness podcast, famed macro analyst and fund manager Brent Johnson mentions that […]Read More

Watch Out For Jobs Reports & Why Janet Yellen Drives Analysts Crazy!

The Big Drop in Rates Will Come When We Get a Negative Jobs Report The big move in interest rates that everyone is expecting at some point will very likely […]Read More

Reddit Bubble Boys Wrong; Dollar Not Going Anywhere; Bedrooms Need Windows

Here are a few unrelated updates and observations for a Monday. Bedrooms Need Windows I blogged recently about “What Is A Bedroom” (for appraisal purposes) and several readers responded to […]Read More