Tag Archive for: recession

Uh Oh…Oil’s Up; Credit Scores – A Brief, Fascinating History – Pointing To Where We’re Going

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Oil was way up this morning, as were gold prices – and I was very worried about the ceasefire collapsing! But… oil prices just fell again, suggesting that something is signaling to oil traders that the ceasefire still has a chance to work out (whew!). A few interesting factoids: Every time oil prices double, America goes into a recession. High oil price recessions are confusing for bond investors – do they demand low yields because of slow growth or high yields because of oil-induced inflation? Oil prices QUADRUPLED from 1973 to 1974 (a fact I’ve shared before because it is so interesting) – brutalizing the American economy.Read More

ARMs vs. 2-1 Buydowns vs. 30-Year; Rates Fell Despite America’s Deficit Woes; What Gives?

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ARMs (or Adjustable-Rate Mortgages) come with either 5, 7, or 10-year fixed periods, before converting to adjustable-rate loans with rates that adjust every six months.Read More

Inflation Numbers Shockingly Cool; Bond Market Reigns Supreme; Recession NOT Averted

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Wow part II! There is so much to unpack today. Also, apologies for hitting economics and finance so much lately, but I have never seen anything like this. Good news at the end though…Read More

5 Threats to Home Prices; Uh-Oh…or Much Ado About Nothing?

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My son was recently looking to buy a home in Austin, Texas. He thought he held all the cards, given that he’s highly qualified and given that the internet continues to scream that Austin is ground zero for the housing meltdown. But...not so much.Read More

Why Trump Needs and Wants A Recession ASAP

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Mr. Trump needs a recession in the worst way. Larry McDonald (NY Times Bestselling Author and Financial Analyst) was on this recent Julia La Roche episode - Larry McDonald: Trump Needs a Recession to Fix the Economy – explaining why Mr. Trump needs a recession.Read More

Rates Up Again! Johnson: “This Is The New Normal, Unless…”

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Brent Johnson says rates will remain relatively high…unless there is a major crisis that forces a massive “flight to safety” (when investors move from stocks to bonds en masse), or a Fed intervention (with massive rate cuts and/or quantitative easing).Read More

2025 Interest Rate Forecast: How Far Will Rates Fall In 2025?

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Every year I predict rates will fall 2% in the following year, so I thought I was due for another prediction. I’m also due for another prediction because the internet loves rate predictions, according to our Marketing Director. In late 2022, I predicted rates would fall in 2023 – only to see them climb over 1.5%.Read More

Rates Shot Up All Last Week – Scaring The Hell Out Of Everyone!

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There was panic last week, when rates were climbing “out of control,” as many analysts think the Fed cut way too much too soon and that inflation will return.Read More

Deflation vs. Inflation; #1 Reason I’m On Team Deflation; Deflation = Much Lower Rates

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Deflation literally terrifies every economist on the planet. But ironically, it can help the mortgage industry, as deflation portends very low interest rates.Read More

Why This Time Really Is Different – And We Won’t See A Recession Or A Crash

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Prior to every recession, we see major signals that almost never fail. Those signals include spikes in the unemployment rate (the Sahm Rule), and the inverted yield curve (where short-term rates are higher than long-term rates), declining consumer confidence, and falling manufacturing activity. These recession signals are so strong and so consistent that I often make fun of the “this-time-is-different” crowd, as we hear that phrase prior to every recession from people telling us there will be no recession.Read More

Homebuyer Sentiment Continues to Hit All-Time Lows

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Lower rates are not yet bringing buyers back to the market as many analysts predicted. I still suspect lower rates will, but they just need to be even lower to assuage affordability concerns. Read More

Fed Rate Cut: Corruption (Powell Helping Kamala) Or Desperate Effort to Stave Off Recession?

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“They lowered interest rates for the election, nothing more…” That was a post on X.com I just saw, but I have seen hundreds of similar posts all over social media […]Read More

Fed “Cuts Rates;” Mortgage Rates Shoot HIGHER In Response

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It is sometimes hard to be this right about things…if only because I was so wrong about predicting a recession in 2023. 😊 BUT I was very right about rates […]Read More

4 Interesting Observations; Rates Drop 2% Since October; China’s Finally Crashing; History of Stock Market Crashes

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Here are some interesting observations to pique your interest today: Rates have dropped 2% since October, China's bond market is crashing, and as always, stock market crashes seem to catch us off guard. Read More