Tag Archive for: recession

Inflation Cools; Rates Fall; Why Inflation Will Fall Further; When Bad News Is Bad News

Wow! Huge day! CPI (Inflation) came in cooler than expected – and rates fell, and stocks soared. But, someone is confused, and I will explain why below. But, first some […]Read More

10 Reasons Why The Economy Will Crash

There is no way we’re going to avoid a bad recession; things are worse than we’re being led to believe; and this time is not different. It’s just a matter of how long the Fed and our government can postpone the inevitable.Read More

11 Trillion Reasons Why Rates Will RISE

Fed Chair Powell spoke yesterday, and rates fell in response. A) Mr. Powell said they have no intention of raising rates; and B) He said the Fed is going to start buying more Treasuries in June ($35 billion per month) – and that will put downward pressure on rates. So great news, right? Probably not. Read More

Inflation Comes In Hot! Rates Shoot Up; BUT – Will It Last? Maybe Not

Today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report came in hotter than expected, and the markets went into panic mode. Rates shot way up, as rate cuts by the Fed seem less and less likely. (Rates are 3/8% higher than where they were a few weeks ago, but still over 1/2% LOWER than where they were in October).Read More

Fed Promises 3 Rate Cuts This Year – But WHY? (Very Confusing Message)

The Fed held the Fed Funds Rate steady this month – which was no surprise. The big surprise was that it announced that we’d see 3 rate cuts this year […]Read More

Why Fed Chair Powell Is TERRIFIED of Arthur Burns! (Why Powell Will Not Cut Rates Now; Why He Will Cut in June)

Jerome Powell is terrified of having an Arthur Burns legacy. So, he’d much rather push the U.S. into a severe recession than risk cutting too soon – and re-igniting inflation. Yes, recessions and all the job losses and suffering are bad, but as Mr. Volcker’s legacy has shown us – Americans forgive Fed Chairs who cause horrible recessions, but we don’t forgive Fed Chairs who ignite inflation.Read More

Everyone You Know Is Rich & That’s Why You’re Confused

To be in the top 10% of the wealthiest Americans, you only need a net worth of $854,00, per Yahoo Finance (this is pretty much everyone who owns a home in CA). The top 5% have net worths of $1 million and the top 2% have net worths of $2.5 million. To be part of the famous and “evil” “top 1%,” you only need a net worth of $5.8 million. Read More

GDP Way Up – Don’t Get Fooled Again

GDP or Gross National Product was up an astonishing 3.3% for Q4 – and the “soft landing” (no recession) crowd is doing victory laps. This is extremely good news, as nothing reflects the health of an economy overall more than GDP growth – as that is the true indication of the total wealth to be spread amongst us all.Read More

Interest Rates Up Again; Trends Vs. Blips; How Worried Should We Be?

The “average interest rate” peaked at just over 8% in October. Interest rates then slid downward 1.5% over the next few months before heading back north over the last few weeks. While they remain 1% lower than where they were in October, the slide upward over the last few weeks has left many people in the real estate and mortgage world all too worried. Read More

10 Reasons For Enormous Optimism In 2024!

2023 was probably the worst year in history for the mortgage industry – and we’re all happy to see it go, as the total losses were well into the billions. It was worse than 1981 even (when the Fed Funds Rate hit 20%) because of all the over-capacity (and excess competition) left over from the COVID boom.Read More

Fed Ready To Cut; Rates Fall & Stocks Shoot Higher; BUT – Why Is This NOT 2007? “This Time’s Different…”

Fed Chair Powell informed the world yesterday that the Fed is ready to “pivot” even before a core inflation reading (PCE) hits their desired 2%. And, this was after a lower-than-expected inflation report (Producer Price Index) was released. As a result, both stocks and bonds performed well, reminding us again that SOMEBODY WILL PROBABLY BE VERY WRONG. Stocks go up on the prospect of a strong economy and higher profits. Bond prices, however, go up on the prospect of lower inflation and a weaker economy. Is it possible that this time is different and that rates will fall and the economy will surge as a result? Not likely.Read More

Both Stocks and Bonds Soar; Confusion or Goldilocks Economy?

What gives is that many stock investors believe the Fed has pulled off a miracle – raising rates just enough to kill off inflation, while NOT killing off the economy at the same time.Read More

Why Do We HATE Each Other So Much? And Why Does It Matter For Housing?

America has not been this contentious or polarized since the Civil War – as most readers know. Many people blame social media for this polarization. The ability to post online without being face-to-face and the ability to post anonymously – seems to foster much more contentious and polarizing discourse.Read More

Inflation Eases/Rates Up – WHY? Delayed Closings; “Walls-In” Insurance for Condos; ADUs NOT Part of Square Footage

A key inflation report, Personal Consumption Expenditures (the Fed’s “favorite”) was released today, and it showed that inflation continues to cool. But, despite that, rates went up. This surprised many casual market observers because cool inflation reports normally send rates sharply down, given that bond investors focus so heavily on inflation.Read More