Tag Archive for: recession

Dude, Where’s The Recession You Keep Harping About? Employment Report B.S.

Because rates have been climbing all week, I got an email that asked me where the recession is that I have been “harping about” for the last year… WHY RATES ARE CLIMBING I first want to address why rates have been climbing all week, and it has to do with the debt ceiling issue. Banks […]Read More

#1 Reason America Will Always Reign Supreme – And Why We Don’t Need to Worry

BANK PROBLEMS WILL GET MUCH WORSE! ZIRP COMING SOON! Former hedge fund manager and certified crazy guy, Hugh Hendry, was on Bloomberg yesterday – with this short, informative, and very entertaining video. Here are a few of Hendry’s points: Bank problems will get MUCH WORSE! Deposits will continue to drain out of banks because it […]Read More

Recession, Depression, Soft Landing, High Rates, Low Rates – Who Do We Believe?

In late 2020, I was having lunch with several mortgage bankers who wanted to celebrate the success we were all having – as we were all enjoying unimaginable record profits. I, however, was not in a celebratory mood, telling them that rates would likely approach 8% in the coming years and that we needed to […]Read More

7 Reasons Why Analysts Are FURIOUS With The Fed!

TOP TEN AI PROMPTS TO SAVE HUNDREDS OF HOURS OF WORK The above headline was the point of this excellent tweet thread. I highly recommend it for anyone who is still trying to figure out how to use AI. JUMBO LOANS GOING BY THE WAYSIDE? Rob Chrisman, the mortgage industry’s premier blogger, wrote this yesterday:  “On […]Read More

Stopping Onslaught of Mortgage Lender Phone Calls! Pending Home Sales Down! FHA RATES ARE LOW!

SURE SIGN OF RECESSION: A MASSIVE UPTICK IN SALES CALLS! Famed, Nobel-Prize-winning economist, Paul Krugman tweeted this morning that today’s GDP data shows “no hint of recession.” So, it is obvious to me that Mr. Krugman does not own a business because if he did, he would be getting inundated with sales calls and know […]Read More

0% Interest Rates – Coming Soon! (per Alf Peccatiello)

I LOVE ZIRP! My love for ZIRP cannot be overstated. Every morning, I zirp up my pants, go to 7-Eleven and order an extra large Zirpee, and listen to my favorite song – Zirpity-Doo-Dah. For those of you who don’t obsess with macroeconomics (and who are missing all the fun), ZIRP is an acronym for […]Read More


MARSHMALLOW.COM = MY FAVORITE APP! I love marshmallows. And – every three to four months when my craving gets bad, I order marshmallows right to my door from marshmallow.com. And – it is awesome! They show up the same day, and the marshmallows are always fresh and delicious. They come in four flavors (chocolate, vanilla, […]Read More

Fed Raises Rates; Mortgage Rates PLUMMET; Why? JVM’s Here to Stay!

JVM’S HERE TO STAY; BACKUP FOR BANKS PULLING OUT JVM was officially founded in 2006, and effectively founded in 1999 under another name by my wife, Heejin – with much of her operation carrying over to JVM in 2006. All this is to say that we are definitely here to stay, as we have ridden […]Read More


“IF A RECESSION IS COMING, HOW DO YOU EXPLAIN THE STRONG JOBS REPORT?” That was an email I received this morning from the most prominent voice/blogger in the mortgage industry. He is very successful, a great guy, and much more knowledgeable than I am overall, but it is interesting to see how even he follows […]Read More

DANGER! Don’t Look Through the “2008 Lens!”

Lyn Alden is probably my favorite Macro Analyst, as she is clearly brilliant and also very articulate and objective. I HIGHLY recommend following her on Twitter and on any podcast she happens to hop on. Last week, she was on one of my favorite macro podcasts – MacroVoices – and I also recommend that, as […]Read More

Much Lower Interest Rates By March; Why & What It Means

On Thursday, CPI (inflation data) came in lower than expected – and we saw one of the largest one-day rate drops ever. I of course blogged about it here: THIS IS HUGE! Inflation & Rates PLUMMET. My biggest takeaway though wasn’t just that inflation and rates dropped; it was to point out how correct the […]Read More

How Interest Rates Impact Home Values (Not What You Think)

“Jay, How Naïve Are You?” That was the response I got from a past client last spring when I was noting how higher interest rates had not yet impacted home values. I made the further mistake of saying I was not sure how much higher rates would impact values too, in light of all the […]Read More

DEFLATION Coming Soon To A Theater Near You!

Stephanie Pomboy is the founder of a macro research firm called MacroMavens, and she was on this Wealthion Podcast recently, and it was so interesting I had to blog about it! I was fascinated by her insistence that we face DEFLATION as early as next year because everyone is talking about how entrenched INFLATION is […]Read More

Why’s Inflation Higher in U.S.? Scary LinkedIn Indicator! I Missed Something HUGE!

Today’s blog is a “random show” – hitting a few (really interesting) topics briefly. SOMETHING HUGE I MISSED: RISING INCOMES! In my blog yesterday about putting rising housing payments in perspective, I missed one of the most important points: RISING INCOMES! Incomes have risen sharply since 2015, particularly in the tech world, greatly offsetting the […]Read More

This Ain’t 2008 – Again

I COULD ROTATE MY FOOT 270 DEGREES – SO NATURALLY, I PANICKED About 15 years ago, I turned my entire knee into butter while I was skiing at Squaw Valley (now Palisades Tahoe). I was skiing with a bunch of way-too-cautious boomers that day, so I escaped during lunch to do one fast run. Wanting […]Read More

China’s Banking System Collapse Is Terrifying; Why It Matters

EVERYONE IS FOCUSED ON “FED DAY” – which is the day of the month (today) on which the Fed announces its latest increase in the Fed Funds Rate (expected to be 0.75%, and the market has “priced it in” already). BUT – there is an economic issue brewing overseas that is 100x more momentous and […]Read More

Rates Keep Falling & Will Fall More; Timing The Market

Rates fell again primarily in response to negative economic data, including revised data that showed the economy shrunk more than we thought in Q1 along with more recession indicators and predictions. The 10 Year Treasury, which correlates closely to mortgage rates, hovered near 3.5% only a few weeks ago – but it is now under […]Read More

Good News! Recession Coming Soon; Rates Continue to Fall After Fed Raises “The Rate”

A week ago, I pointed out how the recent 0.75% increase in the Fed Funds rate resulted in LOWER long-term rates. I highlighted three reasons for this: (1) The markets perceived the news as effective inflation fighting; (2) the markets expected the news and had priced it in already; and (3) the Fed Funds rate […]Read More

High Rates; Softer Market; ARMs; Housing Shortages; Recessions; Refis

Highest Mortgage Rates Since 2009 Last week’s sky-high inflation numbers have pushed 10-Year Treasury rates to levels we have not seen since 2018. While mortgage rates are at levels we have not seen since 2009. Beating A Dead Horse – Again The fast-climbing rates and media rumblings continue to spook buyers – so I am […]Read More

Why We’re Seeing Fraud Claims Now & Will See A Lot More

I knew and worked with a bunch of hard money lenders (who loaned money based strictly on equity) prior to the 2008 meltdown. Even though they were a bit cocky with their success and they lived like rockstars, they were all nice and honest guys for the most part. They solicited pools of funds from friends, family members, and outside investors – and then loaned out that money to homeowners and homebuyers who could not qualify for better financing.Read More

History of Interest Rates; Some Perspective

Are Rates High? Yes, rates are 2% higher than they were when they bottomed out after COVID hit and they are back to the 2009 levels, but are they “high?” No. Not even close when we look at the history of rates over the last 50 years. Here is a link to an excellent interactive […]Read More

Fastest Rate Increase Since 1981; Will Recession Lower Rates?

The Fed has engineered the fastest increase in mortgage rates since 1981 – as rates have nearly doubled over the last several months. And, interestingly, housing continues to appreciate for the usual reasons we cite often: (1) inventory remains at record low levels primarily due to a lack of building, not demand, since 2008; (2) demand remains stronger than ever primarily as a result of demographics or millennials hitting homebuying age; and (3) affordability has not been affected as much as people think because incomes have risen with inflation.Read More

Recession Coming Soon – Will It Bring Down Rates?

Barry Habib of MBS Highway fame was recently on the National Real Estate Post, discussing interest rates because that is what he does. Once again, I love quoting Barry because he has been one of the most accurate prognosticators in the vast realm of economic punditry. Also, his 20-minute interview is not behind a paywall, […]Read More

Why Did Interest Rates Fall After The Fed Ostensibly Made Them Rise?

The Fed recently raised rates, but interest rates fell in response. This is something we see so often that I had to blog about it – to again allay some of the confusion about the Fed’s rate increases. Rates are way up now, but recently they fell at least 1/8% AFTER the Fed announced the […]Read More

Inflation & Rates Increase But Industry Experts Still Bet On Low Rates

The current surge in commodity prices such as wheat, nickel, copper, and oil is fostering doom and gloom predictions – of mass shortages and runaway inflation. So, in light of that, why is Raoul Pal, the founder and CEO of “Real Vision” buying bonds in a bet that interest rates will fall? Pal thinks higher prices will crush demand and that a recession is looming.Read More

“Rising Bond Yields Ease Recession Fears” Does It Matter?

The title of today’s blog is from this recent WSJ article (as always, we can send key excerpts to non-subscribers). The article quotes Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, as he pointed out how strong consumer spending and employment numbers indicate that the U.S. economy remains robust and should retain its health into the near future. Inflation […]Read More

Will a Recession Tank Housing Prices? Probably Not…

I know numerous people who are anxiously waiting for the next recession b/c they expect housing prices to tank. They can’t wait to swoop in and find bargains like the many that were available after the 2008 meltdown. BUT, according to Appraisal-Blogger-Extraordinaire, Ryan Lundquist, housing prices don’t always “correct” or decrease during recessions. Prices often […]Read More

Why Nobody Takes ARMs (Adjustable Rates); Inverted Yield Curves; Recessions

SELLING ARMS IN THE 1990s There was an event in 1995 that gave a wonderfully powerful jolt to my book of business. A sales rep from a lender called LaSalle came by our office and told us about the Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs) his firm offered. They were 5 and 7 year ARMs in the […]Read More

The Fed Halts Rate Increases; Good Or Bad?

Yesterday, the Fed announced that there will be no more rate hikes in 2019. And many people in the mortgage and real estate industries cheered. But a lot of economists and Fed-watchers are more worried than ever. Here is just one of many articles (from the WSJ) I read today illuminating serious concerns. The Fed […]Read More