Tag Archive for: recession

Why I Was So WRONG About Rates; Why It Matters So Much

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If you google “wrongness,” you’ll see a picture of me screaming “Rates will fall by March of ’23!” I am wrong a lot actually and am not afraid to admit it because it makes for great learning and blog fodder. For example, I was wrong about when rates will fall, and I was wrong when I said that the Fed would not raise rates again after its June pause.Read More

Rates Shoot Dangerously High After Fed Said Rates Would Hold; What Gives?

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I spent ALL morning thinking about chunky highlights; gaucho pants; “wide-ass belts"; swoopy, floppy hair; wide headbands – and many other things that were cool in 2007, but aren't cool now! My 2007 obsession was fostered by the fact that the 10 Year Treasury Yield hit a level we have not seen since that glorious year (you should have seen my chunky highlights!)Read More

Goldman Sachs: “Only 15% Chance of Recession in 2024” WHY???

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Gammon shreds all of Goldman’s assertions in his video, reminding us that Goldman completely missed the 2008 financial crisis with its previous predictions, as well as the inflation runup we just went through and much of the fallout from the COVID crisis.Read More

When Will Mortgage Rates Drop?

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Mortgage Rates Will Drop 2% On January 8, 2024! Or not, because nobody has a clue what will actually happen. A recession was delayed due to stimulus, but it is coming, and rates will fall – likely sometime between October and Q1 of 2024.Read More

Rates Shooting Way Up Soon – Here’s Why

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With respect to inflation, we could see an apparent “resurgence” tomorrow when Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers are released. This is because the CPI report will be for July and the comparisons are year-over-year, meaning that July of 2023 will be compared to July of 2022. And because July of 2022 was a very low reading, July of 2023 could come in relatively high. This is precisely the opposite of what happened with May’s report, which compared a very high April of 2022 number to April of 2023.Read More

WHEN Will the Recession Come?

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EVERYONE expected the entire country and much of the world to be mired in a horrible recession by now. And yet, we’re still growing. I blogged about the reasons why […]Read More

Rates Climb 1/2%! Will It Last? What’s Going On?

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Rates have shot up almost 1/2 percent since late June – taking a particular beating over the last week (largely in response to strong employment data). We are back to […]Read More

Men’s Underwear; Lipstick; RVs; Car Washes; & Other Unusual Recession Indicators

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Goldman Sachs recently lowered its recession prediction to a probability of only 25%! This of course is in sharp contrast to Jeff Snider, Barry Habib, Alf Peccatiello, Stephanie Pomboy, Hugh Hendry […]Read More

Why Most Agents Need to Refi Before October 15th; Will Rates Ever Fall?

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A savvy agent emailed last week asking when she could refinance her condo which is currently at 6.5%. She was anxious to refi BEFORE she files her 2022 tax returns, […]Read More

Dude, Where’s The Recession You Keep Harping About? Employment Report B.S.

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Because rates have been climbing all week, I got an email that asked me where the recession is that I have been “harping about” for the last year… Why Rates […]Read More

#1 Reason America Will Always Reign Supreme – And Why We Don’t Need to Worry

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 An excellent and extremely well-informed agent emailed me yesterday to ask me if we are heading into a depression, as Jeff Snider’s podcast was scaring the heck out of her.  And my answer was no for a variety of reasons. First of all, Mr. Snider always comes across as a bit too negative, so his info, while accurate, should be taken with a grain of salt.Read More

Recession, Depression, Soft Landing, High Rates, Low Rates – Who Do We Believe?

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In late 2020, I was having lunch with several mortgage bankers who wanted to celebrate the success we were all having – as we were all enjoying unimaginable record profits. I, however, was not in a celebratory mood, telling them that rates would likely approach 8% in the coming years and that we needed to streamline and get much more efficient.Read More

7 Reasons Why Analysts Are FURIOUS With The Fed!

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I have never seen so much frustration and anger expressed over policy errors as I have over the last week – and it is all because the Fed is poised to raise the Fed Funds Rate 0.25% today. This will bring us to a 16-year high in what has been the fastest rate hiking cycle in history, and it will likely bring our economy to its knees.Read More

Stopping Onslaught of Mortgage Lender Phone Calls; Pending Home Sales Down! FHA Rates Are LOW!

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I now get well over 100 phone calls, messages, and emails every day. And yes, I filter and screen them all, but the volume is just off the charts – and the extreme uptick in volume tells me something is very amiss in our economy.Read More