Tag Archive for: housing

“Dear Buyer, The Market’s Not Soft; Please Don’t Lowball;” Cockroaches Kill Deal; 10 Day Closes Reign Supreme!

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Many of the markets we serve are, in fact, very cool, with inventory builds and price discounts (mostly across the Sunbelt). It’s fascinating to see how some very hot markets are only a few miles away from some very cool markets, too – in all states. The crash bros are constantly posting about the soft markets alone while ignoring the many very hot markets. Homebuyers are seeing this onslaught of housing doomerism, firmly believing they can find “deals” in every market, and insisting on either lowballing or underbidding in the face of fierce competition. I bring this up because we are seeing our buyers get outbid over and over. This is one more reason we should all teach buyers to ignore the crash bros.Read More

What Is A Jumbo Loan In California?

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A jumbo loan in California is a loan amount that exceeds the conforming county loan limits set by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). A jumbo loan is a conventional (not government-insured) mortgage loan.Read More

Rates Fall Back to the Sweet Spot After Oil Crash

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Oil Prices (WTI) Plummeted To $92 Per Barrel From $104 Per Barrel On Monday. Interest rates followed and are now almost 3/8% LOWER than they were a few weeks ago. This unprecedented plunge in oil prices indicates again that very astute oil traders believe the Iran war will not escalate (again, huge investors with money on the line are often more accurate predictors of world events than “expert” pundits).Read More

2019 vs. 2026 Housing Inventory; So Many Interesting Takeaways!

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In 1985, when I was motorcycling across America, I stopped at a dive bar in West Virginia for lunch because it was the only place around. It had that depressing, all-too-quiet, seen-it’s-better-days, worn out, musty lunchtime atmosphere that I’d seen at similar establishments all across the country. The only patrons were a few state construction workers grabbing lunch, a couple of local alcoholics, and a very bitter CBS reporter nursing a Bloody Mary. I recognized the reporter instantly, as I had seen him on hundreds of newscasts over the years (back when there were only three networks and reporters were much more famous). I made the mistake of asking the reporter why he was there… and I got a long diatribe about how he had been “put out to pasture” (just like an old horse) in a remote field office, waiting for stories to break – but they never did. He then told me in no uncertain terms how much he hated West Virginia. Coming from Arizona, that was the first time I had ever heard anything negative about the state, but apparently, that reporter was not alone with his sentiments - and homebuilders got the message. I share this story because West Virginia has seen one of the largest inventory drops in the country (down 51%) since 2019. “Crash Bro,” Nick Gerli, shared the below chart, comparing 2019 to 2026 housing inventory changes in every state – and the takeaways are fascinating.Read More

Rates Up Again; When Will They Come Back Down?

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We saw record loan volume last week, hitting a number of locked loans we have not seen since 2022. Then…it all stopped. The reason, of course, was the Iran war – which threatens the distribution of as much as 20% of the world’s energy supplies (sparking inflation fears). In other words, right when things were getting good, geopolitics threw a wrench into the machine (again).Read More

Trump’s Housing Dilemma: Sacrifice Boomers Or Gen Z? Sorry Gen Z…

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There is a beautiful park near my CA home where a six to ten boomers show up every morning at 7 AM to let their dogs run. I’ve gotten to know them well over the years – and this is what is the most interesting. ALL of them bought their homes in the 1990s or early 2000s for anywhere from $400,000 to $900,000 – and ALL of those homes are now worth $2.5 to $3 million.Read More

Will High Rates Bring Down The Cost of Hamburger?

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If aliens swooped down and stole 90% of the world’s cattle tonight, the cost of beef would likely increase at least tenfold. And the Fed’s response would be to raise interest rates to bring down the cost of beef. This is because in Fed land – all price increases are “inflation.” Comically and paradoxically, higher rates would likely increase the cost of beef.Read More

Housing “Crash Bros” Destroyed By Jason Hartman!

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Jason Hartman is one of the most preeminent residential real estate experts in the arena. He’s fearless, willing to debate anyone, and he’s chock-full of facts. And he recently posted a short video that crushes the “crash bros” who continue to predict residential real estate Armageddon: DOOMERS are Like Broken Clocks- They're Right Twice A Day.Read More

Why 6% Rates Will Reignite The Housing Market & Why It Matters So Much!

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For years now, Jeff Snider has been insisting rates will plummet and remain low for a long time based on all the data he very closely analyzes.Read More

Most Important Housing Data On The Internet: Housing Starts Vs. Household Formations

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Darth Powell is the angriest man on the internet. But the good news is that he does not discriminate with his anger, as he viciously attacks both the right and the left if they dare to disagree with any of his dire predictions.Read More

Why Do We HATE Each Other So Much? And Why Does It Matter For Housing?

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America has not been this contentious or polarized since the Civil War – as most readers know. Many people blame social media for this polarization. The ability to post online without being face-to-face and the ability to post anonymously – seems to foster much more contentious and polarizing discourse.Read More

Will Housing Prices Drop In 2024?

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RFK says that 3 giant corporations (BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street) will own 60% of America’s single-family homes by 2030, if they continue their buying trajectory. So, that huge amount of demand would be bullish for housing prices – despite the repercussions. BUT – the housing bears have been claiming for months that these same firms are going to start dumping all of their inventory, and thus crash the market. So – which is it? Excess demand from all the buying, or excess supply from all the selling? This is just a reminder that nobody actually has a clue what will happen over the long term – or even in 2024. I am, however, going to briefly set out the bullish and bearish arguments – and explain why I remain bullish.Read More

No Building + Growing Population = Strong Housing Market EVEN IF RATES ARE AT 6%!

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There were about 2.3 million new homes constructed in 1973 – a number we have not seen since. This is not that big of a deal until you remember that the entire population of the U.S. was only about 211 million (compared to 332 million now). Over the last year, we have built about 1.3 million homes, when, again, the U.S. population was over 330 million!Read More

2022 Predictions: Fed, Inflation, Stocks, Interest Rates, Housing, & Rents

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Happy New Year! Here are some predictions for 2022. I am sharing these predictions, however, for two reasons: (1) they are from Barry Habib and he has been more accurate than anyone over the last several years; and (2) they involve factors that significantly influence the mortgage and real estate industries – and are encouraging overall.Read More