Tag Archive for: 10 year treasury yield

3 Reasons To Be Very Thankful For Today’s Rates; Wow – Markets Ignore Hot Jobs Report!

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If the spread between the average mortgage rate and the 10-Year Treasury Yield was at 2023 levels, today’s average rate would be 1% higher! (The average rate would be close to 7.4%!). Read More

Rates Fall Back to the Sweet Spot After Oil Crash

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Oil Prices (WTI) Plummeted To $92 Per Barrel From $104 Per Barrel On Monday. Interest rates followed and are now almost 3/8% LOWER than they were a few weeks ago. This unprecedented plunge in oil prices indicates again that very astute oil traders believe the Iran war will not escalate (again, huge investors with money on the line are often more accurate predictors of world events than “expert” pundits).Read More

The Real (Much Bigger) War Behind The Scenes; Why Gold Crashed & It’s Good News!

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Economies can’t handle interest rate shocks (the mortgage industry is a case in point), and the repercussions put politicians in deep peril. So, it is a certainty that nobody is freaking out more than Trump administration officials. This is because oil prices and interest rates are up again today! (Mortgage rates have now climbed almost 5/8%!) But here’s a fascinating and comforting reminder: In 1993 and 1994, 10 Year Treasury Yields rose from 5.2% to over 8.0%! (A 3% increase!) This was in response to Clinton’s efforts to push through a massive stimulus bill that the bond market did not like.Read More

Making Sure Everyone Notices How LOW Rates Are; Blaming The Weather

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Pending home sales plummeted in January, coming in well below expectations. The “crash bros” and “bitter-ati” were gleeful… telling us everyone who would listen that the housing market had finally died. But – this time we really can blame the weather, as America experienced one of the worst winter storms in decades – and horrible weather across a large swath of the country will always adversely impact home sales. This is in contrast to when government officials blame the weather for every other negative economic report possible (construction, retail sales, car sales, etc.) – even when the weather issues are isolated. Anyway – the housing marketing lives…Read More

Danger Of Waiting For Rates To Fall; Foreclosures Shoot Dangerously High; What’s A Recert of Value?; Actual DSCR Rates

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The 10-Year Treasury yield shot way up today – unexpectedly. The reasons? Higher oil prices sparking inflation fears, and a move into stocks and out of bonds (flight from “safety” into “risk assets”). I bring this up because we have well over 100 borrowers in our database who easily qualify for no-cost refinances that would save them thousands of dollars – but they don’t want to execute because they are convinced rates will fall further. Sigh…Read More

What Happens If 10-Year Treasury Yields Fall To 3%?

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An inflation report (PCE) came in hotter than expected this morning – and rates moved higher in response.Read More

The Interest Rate The Fed Follows – That Proves It Will Cut Rates Soon

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Every morning when I get up, I check the 10-Year Treasury Yield because it always tells me which way mortgage rates are heading.Read More

Treasury Yields Down; Mortgage Rates Up; Why?

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“Interest rates” went down again today, but “mortgage rates” went up. I have blogged about this before but am hitting it again because it is so interesting and because it […]Read More

Fed Holds & Rates Fall: How Jobless Claims, Productivity & BLS Reports Impact Mortgage Rates; Inflation’s Over

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Rates fell again this morning in response to negative labor market news and positive productivity news. Initial and continuous jobless claims came in higher than expected today along with more layoff announcements from the likes of UPS (12,000), Salesforce (7,000), and Microsoft (3,000). Bond investors are of course very leery of all these numbers, as they understand that layoffs are always the final shoe to drop once we’re in a recession and this this could just be the beginning. Labor market productivity improved too – and that is huge! Productivity refers to the total amount of output relative to total hours worked – and it is something America is particularly adept at improving. It is extremely important because improved productivity is another indication that inflation will be tamed, as labor costs are a major component of inflation.Read More

Why Massive Government Borrowing Is Not Pushing Rates Higher Like EVERYONE Predicted

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The more the government borrows, the more it slows down economic growth. And the more it slows down economic growth, the more investors demand the “safety and liquidity” of Treasury Bonds. So, there will always be sufficient demand for our debt, without having to push yields higher.Read More

Rates To Shoot Up 2% Early Next Year, Per Felix Zulauf… Before Plummeting (Along With Stocks)

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According to Felix Zulauf, renowned fund manager and macro-analyst, the 10 Year Treasury yield could spike to 5.5% early next year (which could push mortgage rates up almost 2% from today’s levels) - before plummeting over the rest of the year. Zulauf also believes that the S&P 500 could easily crash by as much as 40% off its peak.Read More

Rates Hit Record High (Again); 2007 vs. 2023 – A Worrisome Comparison!

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Rates hit a new record high today, as the 10 Year Treasury hit levels not seen since 2007, and mortgage rates are back to 2000’s peak levels.Read More

Rates Shoot Dangerously High After Fed Said Rates Would Hold; What Gives?

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I spent ALL morning thinking about chunky highlights; gaucho pants; “wide-ass belts"; swoopy, floppy hair; wide headbands – and many other things that were cool in 2007, but aren't cool now! My 2007 obsession was fostered by the fact that the 10 Year Treasury Yield hit a level we have not seen since that glorious year (you should have seen my chunky highlights!)Read More

Inflation Slows & Rates Drop AGAIN; WHY SO IMPORTANT?

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Rates plummeted yesterday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell made some comments indicating that the Fed will start to slow its rate increases. Rumor has it that he got early notice […]Read More