Tag Archive for: 10 year treasury yield

Fed Holds & Rates Fall: How Jobless Claims, Productivity & BLS Reports Impact Mortgage Rates; Inflation’s Over

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Rates fell again this morning in response to negative labor market news and positive productivity news. Initial and continuous jobless claims came in higher than expected today along with more layoff announcements from the likes of UPS (12,000), Salesforce (7,000), and Microsoft (3,000). Bond investors are of course very leery of all these numbers, as they understand that layoffs are always the final shoe to drop once we’re in a recession and this this could just be the beginning. Labor market productivity improved too – and that is huge! Productivity refers to the total amount of output relative to total hours worked – and it is something America is particularly adept at improving. It is extremely important because improved productivity is another indication that inflation will be tamed, as labor costs are a major component of inflation.Read More

Why Massive Government Borrowing Is Not Pushing Rates Higher Like EVERYONE Predicted

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The more the government borrows, the more it slows down economic growth. And the more it slows down economic growth, the more investors demand the “safety and liquidity” of Treasury Bonds. So, there will always be sufficient demand for our debt, without having to push yields higher.Read More

Rates To Shoot Up 2% Early Next Year, Per Felix Zulauf… Before Plummeting (Along With Stocks)

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According to Felix Zulauf, renowned fund manager and macro-analyst, the 10 Year Treasury yield could spike to 5.5% early next year (which could push mortgage rates up almost 2% from today’s levels) - before plummeting over the rest of the year. Zulauf also believes that the S&P 500 could easily crash by as much as 40% off its peak.Read More

Rates Hit Record High (Again); 2007 vs. 2023 – A Worrisome Comparison!

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Rates hit a new record high today, as the 10 Year Treasury hit levels not seen since 2007, and mortgage rates are back to 2000’s peak levels.Read More

Rates Shoot Dangerously High After Fed Said Rates Would Hold; What Gives?

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I spent ALL morning thinking about chunky highlights; gaucho pants; “wide-ass belts"; swoopy, floppy hair; wide headbands – and many other things that were cool in 2007, but aren't cool now! My 2007 obsession was fostered by the fact that the 10 Year Treasury Yield hit a level we have not seen since that glorious year (you should have seen my chunky highlights!)Read More

Inflation Slows & Rates Drop AGAIN; WHY SO IMPORTANT?

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Rates plummeted yesterday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell made some comments indicating that the Fed will start to slow its rate increases. Rumor has it that he got early notice […]Read More

If High Rates Bring Down Housing Prices, Will Low Rates Push Prices Through the Roof Again? Inflation Too!

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If higher rates are the sole reason the housing market is softer, will the soon-to-be-here lower rates push prices through the roof again? If that is the case, it is one more reason to buy now to take advantage of today’s slower market, knowing that a refi into a much lower rate is very likely.Read More

Mortgage Rates Do Not Equal 10-Year Treasury Rates

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The 10-Year Treasury Yield dropped almost 4/10% recently – so why didn’t mortgage rates drop that much? The 10-Year Treasury yield (interest rate) is a reflection of what it costs […]Read More

Mortgage Rate Rules Out The Window; Confirmation Bias; Kool-Aid Mustaches, Sting-Rays & Snakes

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In the pre-internet days of the mid-1990s, we would call the “Bond Market Hotline” on the telephone (with a cord 😊) several times per day to see how the 10 […]Read More

Rates Hit Another All-Time Low… Yawn; Why and Will They Go Lower?

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Rates edged lower again, allowing me to quote the lowest 30-year fixed-rate I have ever quoted (see our rates here). MARGINAL DROP/MARGINAL HELP FOR CONSUMERS Rates only fell marginally though, […]Read More