Tag Archive for: stock market

ADU/Renovation HELOCS to 125% LTV; Why Iran War Didn’t CRASH STOCKS & Re-Create The 1970s (Worst Decade Ever)

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We have a Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) for ADU/In-Law construction that can also be used for general renovations. What makes it unique is that credit limits go up to 125% of the property's value – or as much as 95% of the property's value after the renovation/construction (95% ARV or After Repair Value).Read More

How Much Will The Stock Market Crash Bring Down Rates?

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I looked back at historical data to see how much stock market crashes bring down rates, and the results were both fascinating and encouraging (if you’re in the mortgage industry).Read More

Stock Market Crash Is Coming FOR SURE; Preventing It Will Push Rates Higher

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We are going to see a 1987-style stock market crash (only worse) for sure, and it is only a matter of when. I have blogged about this many times, but investing guru Mike Green was just on this Julia La Roche podcast - Why A 1987-Style Crash Is Now Almost Inevitable – explaining why. So, I am hitting it again for two reasons: (1) the podcast is very short – so every investor should listen to it; and (2) I am adding another twist to explain why this threat will lead to higher rates.Read More

Expect Higher Rates In The Near Term; Two Huge Takeaways

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I predicted mid to low 5% mortgage rates later this year several times in blogs and talks – but I did not expect three things: Ukraine to get so good at attacking Russian oil facilities. The Iran war, and its continuance. And Too fast of an increase in the money supply. As recently as two weeks ago, I discussed energy analyst Doomberg’s reminder that oil producers always overproduce in response to high oil prices, which always results in gluts later on. Doomberg predicts that oil will drop to as low as $30 per barrel (from $105 today). But that could take several years to play out. High oil prices push up all other prices, sparking the inflation concerns that have been pushing rates way up since the Iran war started. Iran’s resistance and Trump’s escalatory language pushed oil prices up to a new high today, and rates are up again as a result.Read More

The Coming “Silver Tsunami” Housing Crash = More Nonsense

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NOTE: Rates have been rising again on more oil market news. My Marketing Director, however, told me that I can’t blog about “the stupid oil markets” again. 😊 So, suffice it to say that oil market jitters (and inflation concerns) resulting from the Iran war continue to drive rates higher.Read More

3 Reasons Stock Market Crashes Stimulate Homebuying; Unlocking Mortgage Rate Lockdowns

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I used to dread stock market crashes because they brought homebuying in the San Francisco Bay Area to a standstill. But now that much of our business is outside of the Bay Area, I can’t wait for the next one… (notwithstanding the damage to my own portfolio 😊) A surprisingly high percentage of our Bay Area buyers have always been heavily invested in the stock market, due to the nature of their jobs and the prevalence of stock options. But buyers outside the Bay Area, especially first-time buyers, are not nearly as invested in the stock market or as reliant on gains. In the olden days (circa 2019), there was only one reason a stock market crash would stimulate homebuying. But today, there are three – and that is what makes this topic so interesting.Read More

Stock Market Correction Finally Coming Soon… Here’s Why (And What Will Happen)

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In 2024, I blogged about a potential stock market correction several times because overall valuations were so high relative to the size of our economy (Buffett Indicator), there was so much euphoria, and price-to-earnings ratios were so high, among other things. But we only saw a temporary correction over the summer – and the markets have since roared back and then some.Read More

Why Rates Will Fall After The Fed Cuts – Unlike Last Year

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This will likely be one of the craziest falls we’ve seen in years when it comes to financial volatility. The labor market continues to show signs of serious weakness. The […]Read More

Quiz: What Is Some Very Good News That Should Terrify Us?

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Here’s some irony for you. The implementation of tariffs sent rates through the roof. And the removal of tariffs will send rates through the roof!Read More

Rates Keep Falling! 5 Things You Should Know

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Mortgage rates have fallen back to levels not seen since October. The mortgage industry is cheering, and buyers are returning to the market, like we see every time rates dip. But will lower rates remain, and will rates continue to fall?Read More

Rates Are Tumbling – Where’s The Bottom?

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In the affluent CA neighborhood where I live part of the year – I constantly see brand new $100,000+ vehicles, $10,000+ bicycles, and very high-end e-bikes (many of them operated by teenagers).Read More

Myths: Trump Tamed Inflation; Biden Left Strong Economy

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I’ve blogged about this struggling young couple many times. She (I’ll call her Susan) was an escrow assistant, he (I’ll call him Mike) worked for the city, and their combined income was $165,000 per year in the early 2000s.Read More

Warren Buffett’s Record High Cash Position Should Scare The Sh*t Out of You

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I was surprised to see a $2.15 million listing near our SF Bay Area home go pending immediately, as the listing itself had minimal updating, and the landscaping had not been touched since the Civil War.Read More

Chinese AI Firm (DeepSeek) Crashes Markets; Pushes Rates Down; So Much To Learn

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I remember how cool Friendster and Myspace were… until that Facebook thing came along and crushed them out of existence. But at least I could still appreciate Pandora… until Spotify came along.Read More