Posts

Why The Fed Desperately Wants to TANK the Housing Market!

One of my favorite macro pundits, Alfonso Peccatiello (former $20 billion fund manager who goes by “Alf”) recently tweeted this: “The biggest group of consumers in the US owns houses, not stocks. And this is why taming the animal spirits in the housing market is paramount important for the Fed. And they will succeed…” He […]Read More

When ALL Assets Are Crashing – Make Sure There Is A “There There”

Pets.com famously spent $46 on advertising for every $10 in sales and flamed out in one of the most famous dotcom busts. The model was flawed from the start, and in hindsight it seems obvious that they could never generate profits – but investors bought up the stock by the bushel anyway.Read More

Why Housing Prices Will Double In 6 Years; No Bubble Here…Part 37

Interestingly, Barry Habib (MBS Highway Founder), Ken McElroy (famous real estate investor), and some dude on Reddit all recently made the case for much higher housing prices – DESPITE HIGHER RATES. And all of them were responding to all of the housing bubble fears we see everywhere now on social media and in the press. […]Read More

Why The NASDAQ Impacts Homebuying So Much

After the 2008 meltdown, a borrower told me how sad she and her husband were because they lost $250,000. They bought their home in the 1990s for $300,000 and watched it appreciate to $1 million by 2006ish. Interestingly, they pulled cash out every 18 months to buy boats, jet skis, new cars, and vacations.Read More

Nice Guys Finishing First; A Very Telling Staubach-Story

In the TV series/cartoon “King of the Hill,” the characters all spoke about former Dallas Cowboys football stars with god-like reverence – and it was hilarious. Even more comical though is the fact I frequently meet Texans who also speak about former Dallas Cowboys with that same reverence – but in real life. And – […]Read More

How Will The Stock Market Crash Impact Real Estate?

I ❤ Real Estate I frequently tout real estate as an excellent investment for the following reasons: (1) it is a great inflation hedge; (2) there is an inventory shortage due to a lack of building, and not due to excess demand; (3) homebuying demographics are surging in sharp contrast to 2008; (4) buying is […]Read More

How Millennials Power The Housing Market – 6 Conclusions

“Millennials Are Super Charging The Housing Market” This was a front page headline in the WSJ recently. The millennial surge is something we have all seen coming – but there are some fascinating conclusions, nonetheless. Millennials consist of the generation born from 1981 – 1996, and they surpassed baby boomers as the largest generation alive […]Read More

3 Biggest Reasons To Buy Real Estate

The 3 biggest reasons to buy real estate now are: Increasing Rents: Rents are skyrocketing and will only continue to shoot up with inflation. Buying now allows homeowners to permanently fix their housing payments. Locking In a Low Rate: Rates remain extremely low but will inevitably climb as inflation signals get stronger and stronger. Buying […]Read More

2022 Conforming Loan Limits Announced – Up By $100,000; Good or Bad?

As we all learned on TikTok recently, the FHFA announced the new Conforming Loan Limits for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. I mention TikTok because that is where one of our superb marketing managers heard about it – and that was a reminder to me that TikTok isn’t only about bad dancing and lip-syncing. 😊 […]Read More

The Real Reason Zillow Stopped Buying Homes & Why It’s Good For Housing

Zillow announced yesterday that they are no longer buying homes (through the end of the year). It was all over the headlines, and numerous people sent me links to the announcement. At first, I thought: “oh, no… I wonder if their algorithms are predicting a softer housing market…” But then I started to see links […]Read More

4 Reasons Why Real Estate Is One of The Best Inflation Hedges!

INFLATION ON THE HORIZON Major inflation seems all but inevitable in light of our burgeoning supply chain issues, massive government spending, enormous money supply infusions (printing), climbing CPI numbers, and skyrocketing PPI numbers. Because of this, I want to remind everyone why real estate is one of the best inflation hedges available. By “inflation hedge” […]Read More

Are China’s Woes Good for Mortgages and Real Estate? Yes, and No

CHINA LOWERED OUR INTEREST RATES Rates opened up lower today, partially because of the issues China is having with some of its more debt-laden companies such as Evergrande (the huge Chinese Developer teetering on bankruptcy, that was all over the news last week) – according to Barry Habib of MBS Highway. Mr. Habib reminds us […]Read More

Cash Buyers & “Scary” Signs Of The Times; False Mailers; Selling Info

OVERHEATED MARKET AWASH IN CASH – OR SIGN OF THE TIMES? A close friend of mine bought a home in Scottsdale, AZ, in November for less than $1.1mm. She visited the home a couple of times, played a bit of golf, swept the patio, made a few improvements – and listed the home for sale […]Read More

Why Cash (And Living Lean) Is King: When Steve Jobs Was Broke

MAKING MILLIONS AND MOVING BACK TO MOM’S BASEMENT In 2010, NPR released its now very famous “Giant Pool of Money” podcast about the 2008 mortgage meltdown. And – in it they interviewed a former subprime mortgage salesman who had been making $1 million per year for several years, even though he was right out of […]Read More

How To Reduce Stress When Buying & Selling A Home

If you are simultaneously buying and selling a home, you are probably experiencing major stress levels. Is there a way to make this process less stressful? Here are three strategies to help you stay calm and focused while buying and selling a home. Have a Detailed Buying and Selling Plan A lot of the stress […]Read More

When Is The Best Time To Buy A House?

Are you considering buying a home in the Bay Area? Are you unsure of when the right time to buy is? There are many variables in the homebuying process, the first of which is deciding when to move. Many homebuyers want to time the market and take advantage of the seasonal nature of real estate. […]Read More

#1 Reason We’re Not In A Housing Bubble; Life Events & Housing

I am asked every week by friends, family, team members and clients if I think “now is still a good time to buy” and “do I think we are in a housing bubble.” Even though I blog about this often, everyone still wants reassurance. And some of the strongest reassurance I have yet to see […]Read More

Which Week Is the “Black Friday” For Homebuying?

  This was the title of a Housing Wire article I read last week. I am lifting this directly from the article: “Apparently, the best time to purchase a house is the first week of Fall. This time of year, buyers have less competition, more price reductions and greater inventory, according to realtor.com. Out of […]Read More

House Flipping Back to 2006 Levels; Worried?

I get several calls or texts every week by someone offering to buy a condo we own in Scottsdale. What is particularly interesting to me is that the offers come from dialers at large call centers that house-flipping firms have set up to make nonstop calls. In other words, house flipping is a big business […]Read More

Local California Lender Is Better!

JVM Lending takes care of buyers in California’s hot market The Wall Street Journal featured an article recently that stressed that buyers in a competitive market, like California, need a local lender with a stellar reputation, an ability to close quickly, great communication skills, and local appraisers. JVM Lending is a local lender, covering all […]Read More

Is Inflation Back? Houses Are An Inflation Hedge!

INFLATION RAVAGED THE 1970s The only thing that ravaged the 1970s more than the bad music, hair and clothes was the high rate of inflation. High inflation rates hurt economies b/c they create uncertainty, increase interest rates and decrease purchasing power and economic investment, among other things. Inflation is primarily a result of the Fed […]Read More

How To Buy Before Selling Current House

We often have buyers who want to buy a new house before selling their current house. They often want more time to move, more time to fix up their current house before selling, or more time to fix up the new house before moving in. They also sometimes want to make offers on a house […]Read More

Have Housing Prices Peaked? Probably Not, After Inflation

Many people mistakenly believe housing prices have surged out of control in recent years and may have peaked. The reality is that in most areas they are only back to the levels they hit previously in 2006. More importantly, if we adjust for inflation since 2006, housing prices are actually 16% below their 2006 peaks […]Read More

Why Young People Need To Buy Real Estate

We have many clients who come to us concerned about timing the market. While it is of course very advantageous to buy at the bottom, the reality is that nobody can truly know what the market will do over the next few years. The more important thing for young homebuyers to remember is that property […]Read More

“Negative Interest Rates;” How Do They Affect Real Estate?

The German 10-Year Government Bond Yield hit negative territory yesterday. This means that investors actually pay Germany to borrow their money; Germany doesn’t pay interest, but it actually gets paid to borrow money. The same thing is happening in Japan. Why would investors take a negative yield, or pay somebody to borrow their money? B/c […]Read More

Inflation Concerns Explained – How They Affect Real Estate

The Fed is expected to raise short term rates this month b/c employment numbers are adequately strong. But, one area that remains a concern is inflation, or the lack thereof. The Fed actually desires a little inflation, and they do not understand why there is so little. The WSJ had an article this morning on […]Read More

Why Young People Need To Buy Real Estate

We have many clients who come to us concerned about timing the market. While it is of course very advantageous to buy at the bottom, the reality is that nobody can truly know what the market will do over the next few years. The more important thing for young homebuyers to remember is that property […]Read More

Mortgages Can Only Finance Real Estate; Not Cars, Pianos, Commissions

After the dot.com bust 15 years ago, a lot of “wannabe rock stars” had to sell the houses they couldn’t afford. As an enticement to potential buyers (to overpay), they often would include the car they couldn’t afford (usually a Porsche) that was parked in the garage they couldn’t afford. Lenders, of course, frowned on […]Read More

Paying More Than Appraised Value? Why? Appraisal Not Market Value

Yesterday we pointed out how borrowers with large down payments sometimes use FHA or VA financing when appraisals come in low. Several realtors asked why borrowers are willing to pay over appraised value. There are several reasons that we have observed: (1) the buyer is a 27 year social media employee with $11 million in […]Read More

Market Is Market Is Market; Sellers Will Not Leave Money on Table

We have had many borrowers recently tell us that they refuse to pay a certain amount for a property b/c “the house is not worth it” despite that fact that there are five other offers on the house at the same or higher price. In a similar vein, one of our favorite Realtors told us […]Read More

“Who Gets Rich Selling Real Estate?” Wall Street Journal Article

The Wall Street Journal had an interesting article today entitled “Who Gets Rich Selling Real Estate?” The full article is here: http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304591604579290394119863288 It discussed all the young people flooding prep courses and licensing exams b/c the luxury home market is coming back. Here are some key points from the article: I. It takes a surprising […]Read More