Tag Archive for: inflation

Dangerous Myth: “Market Is Soft So I Can Lowball”

One of the biggest misconceptions our pre-approved buyers have is that the market is soft because of today’s higher rates. While it is a fact that today’s higher rates are keeping an enormous number of potential buyers on the sidelines, it is also a fact that inventory levels remain at record lows.Read More

Interest Rates Up Again; Trends Vs. Blips; How Worried Should We Be?

The “average interest rate” peaked at just over 8% in October. Interest rates then slid downward 1.5% over the next few months before heading back north over the last few weeks. While they remain 1% lower than where they were in October, the slide upward over the last few weeks has left many people in the real estate and mortgage world all too worried. Read More

5 Fail-Safe Recession Indicators

Three pieces of news surfaced yesterday that should have pushed interest rates through the roof! 1) Inflation (CPI) came in much hotter than expected; 2)The Fed made comments about “rates needing to stay higher to ensure inflation is tamed;” and 3)An employment report (jobless claims) came in much stronger than expected. When I saw this news surface, I thought we’d see rates climb at least 1/4% yesterday, but instead they actually fell a bit.Read More

10 Reasons For Enormous Optimism In 2024!

2023 was probably the worst year in history for the mortgage industry – and we’re all happy to see it go, as the total losses were well into the billions. It was worse than 1981 even (when the Fed Funds Rate hit 20%) because of all the over-capacity (and excess competition) left over from the COVID boom.Read More

Are Things FINALLY Turning Around For The Better?

“Things Are Turning Around” Barry Habib told us today in his morning update. He pointed out that rates are finally falling consistently, existing homes were up in November (despite record-high rates when those buyers were shopping in October), and inventory is climbing as well. All this is happening during “slow season” too, so things should be far better by the busy spring selling season.Read More

Baseball’s $700 Million Dollar Man’s Taking A Huge Risk! I Hope The Dodgers Are Buying Rental Homes!

The sports world was on fire this week with the announcement that Shohei Ohtani got a whopping $700 million contract to play for the Dodgers! The contract was an all-time record and exceeded estimates by $200 million! BUT, Ohtani is actually “only” getting $2 million per year, making everyone wonder 'how will the poor man even survive?'Read More

Why Do We HATE Each Other So Much? And Why Does It Matter For Housing?

America has not been this contentious or polarized since the Civil War – as most readers know. Many people blame social media for this polarization. The ability to post online without being face-to-face and the ability to post anonymously – seems to foster much more contentious and polarizing discourse.Read More

Inflation Eases/Rates Up – WHY? Delayed Closings; “Walls-In” Insurance for Condos; ADUs NOT Part of Square Footage

A key inflation report, Personal Consumption Expenditures (the Fed’s “favorite”) was released today, and it showed that inflation continues to cool. But, despite that, rates went up. This surprised many casual market observers because cool inflation reports normally send rates sharply down, given that bond investors focus so heavily on inflation.Read More

Rates Fell 3/4% Since Mid-October – Defying Predictions Of “Rate-Ageddon”

Mortgage rates fell almost 3/4% since mid-October – while the 10 Year Treasury yield fell about 6/10%. We’ve seen rates fall before, so who cares? Read More

Inflation Looks “Eerily Similar To 1970s” A Good Thing For Those Of Us Tied To Real Estate

The 1970s were a terrifying decade, proving without a doubt that boomers are not very smart and pretty much tasteless. 😊 We had pet rocks, mood rings, water beds, bell bottoms, unbuttoned shirts, long straggly hair, macramé, short shorts for men, shag carpeting, avocado green appliances, lava lamps, disco, polyester suits, and a fervent belief that jogging would cure all ills (it didn’t; it mostly just gave us bad knees). It wasn’t just a few of us who had those things either; We ALL had all of those things, and don’t let any self-respecting boomer tell you otherwise!Read More

“Inflation Relief Loans” = Lender Paid Buydowns = Bullsh*t or Reality?

The Consumer Price Index reading for September came out hotter than expected today, but rates only moved a bit higher. The reason is partially because the markets are learning to dig into these numbers and realize that they are often just… wrong.Read More

Inflation Up and Rates Down??? Impact of Hamas/Israel Conflict

Producer Price Index (PPI) or “Wholesale” Inflation came in much hotter than expected, but rates fell nonetheless. This surprised many market watchers, as hot inflation reads normally send rates much higher.Read More

Why I Was So WRONG About Rates; Why It Matters So Much

If you google “wrongness,” you’ll see a picture of me screaming “Rates will fall by March of ’23!” I am wrong a lot actually and am not afraid to admit it because it makes for great learning and blog fodder. For example, I was wrong about when rates will fall, and I was wrong when I said that the Fed would not raise rates again after its June pause.Read More

Renting Vs. Owning When Rates Are Over 7%; What the Doomsayers Miss!

The media are scaring the sh*t out of potential buyers again! And another myth they are pedaling is that it is now far better to rent than it is to own.Read More