Tag Archive for: fed funds rate

If AI Kills 50% Of White Collar Jobs – Interest Rates Will Plummet to 0%!

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Anthropic’s (Claude’s) CEO thinks AI will wipe out a full 50% of white-collar jobs. And terrifyingly, he’s not alone, as Elon Musk, Mark Benioff (Salesforce dude), Ford’s CEO, and Microsoft’s AI Chief all agree. If that happens, unemployment will shoot to over 30%! And NOTHING panics the Fed more than rising unemployment. Even a 10% rate would result in a 0% Fed Funds Rate, let alone 30%.Read More

Fed Cuts Rates – And Rates Shoot Higher (Again)

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The Fed cut the Fed Funds Rate by 0.25%, exactly as expected, and long-term rates shot higher shortly thereafter – and they are again higher today. Rates shot up largely in response to Mr. Powell’s “hawkish” comments during his follow-up press conference. He made it very clear that an additional rate cut in December is far from certain (despite betting markets implying otherwise).Read More

Rates Shoot Up Again; Do Fed Rate Cuts INCREASE Mortgage Rates? Will They Fall Again?

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Rates have done nothing but go up since the Fed cut the Fed Funds Rate last Wednesday. We saw another spike in rates this morning as the bond market reacted to much stronger-than-expected economic data (GDP/growth, employment, and durable goods reports).Read More

Fed Day: When Bad News Is Good News; The Oddest Thing In Financial Markets

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I remember “Black Monday” vividly. It was October 19, 1987, and I was still fairly new at my job at an investment bank when the Dow Jones fell almost 23% in one day. The financial markets and all of the employees at my firm were freaking out. The Fed Chair at the time was Alan Greenspan, and he not only did not freak out – but he stepped in the next day to “stabilize” the markets with promises of lower rates, bank lending support, and liquidity injections.Read More

6 More Economic Myths Every Agent Needs To Know

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Presidents and the Fed can do surprisingly little to influence the economy quickly, as the U.S. economy is vast, complex, and responds with significant lag.Read More

4 Economic Myths Everyone Needs to Understand

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I want to touch on a few economic myths to start the year, as these myths remain pervasive.Read More

Rates Up Again! Johnson: “This Is The New Normal, Unless…”

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Brent Johnson says rates will remain relatively high…unless there is a major crisis that forces a massive “flight to safety” (when investors move from stocks to bonds en masse), or a Fed intervention (with massive rate cuts and/or quantitative easing).Read More

Fed “Cuts The Rate” & Mortgage Rates Shoot Higher – But For Different Reasons This Time; Stocks Crash Too

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When the markets fully anticipate a cut in the Fed Funds Rate like they did yesterday, the markets never respond to the actual cut because it has already been “priced in” or fully accounted for.Read More

Two Reasons Why Rates Will Shoot Higher After the Election

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The reasons why rates could shoot way up after the election are because the GOP might take the House, Senate, and presidency, and the Fed will very likely cut the Fed Funds Rate on November 7th – two days after the election. Read More

2025 Mortgage Rate Forecast; Jobs Report Tomorrow = Fake News?

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Interestingly, the title of my blog will send our SEO ranking soaring, as everyone seems to be googling this. But, far be it from me to ever focus on SEO… […]Read More

Fed “Cuts Rates;” Mortgage Rates Shoot HIGHER In Response

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It is sometimes hard to be this right about things…if only because I was so wrong about predicting a recession in 2023. 😊 BUT I was very right about rates […]Read More

Fed Cut Today; 50 or 25 Basis Points? Will It Bring Inflation Back?

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By the time many of you read this blog, the Fed will have already announced its much-expected rate cut to the Fed Funds Rate today. The question is whether it will be 50 basis points or 25 basis points (1/2% vs. 1/4%).Read More

MYTH: Rate Cuts Save The Economy; The Stock Market’s Confused

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The S&P 500 stock index rose 1.5% today after Fed Chair Powell said “the time has come” for Fed rate cuts. The S&P is up more than 10% from its August 5th low – and it’s added back $4.5 trillion of market cap in just three weeks! Read More

Myth: Rate Cuts Help The Economy; Rates Fall To January Levels

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The 10 Year Treasury Yield fell below 4.0% for the first time since late January. This is in response to continuing weak economic signals (particularly in the employment realm), moderating inflation signals, and the belief that Fed Chair Powell will cut rates in September.Read More