Anthropic’s (Claude’s) CEO thinks AI will wipe out a full 50% of white-collar jobs. And terrifyingly, he’s not alone, as Elon Musk, Mark Benioff (Salesforce dude), Ford’s CEO, and Microsoft’s AI Chief all agree.
If that happens, unemployment will shoot to over 30%!
And NOTHING panics the Fed more than rising unemployment. Even a 10% rate would result in a 0% Fed Funds Rate, let alone 30%.
A few anecdotes:
- LUDDITES: In the early 18th century, the “Luddites” famously smashed up textile weaving machines, as those machines threatened the jobs of the Luddites. It is so interesting because they thought they could stop the onslaught of superior technology – when nobody can – and those weaving machines ended up expanding industrialization and creating far more jobs and a far higher standard of living.
- ELEVATORS: Elevators were operated 100% by humans for several decades after they were invented. But then, in 1926, an elevator operator strike led to DIY elevators. Over the next 25 years, elevator operators disappeared – wiping out thousands of jobs. BUT – elevators themselves proliferated at a much faster pace, and there are now far more people employed by the elevator industry than when we had “operators.”
- ATMs: President Obama famously implied that ATMs were wiping out jobs in 2011. The irony, though, was that the number of bank tellers actually increased by 100,000 over the previous decade.
- AUTONOMOUS TRUCKS: Tucker Carlson famously said he wants to ban autonomous trucks to preserve truck driving jobs… Good gravy.
- FARMS: Prior to “mechanization,” 90% of Americans worked in agriculture. The mechanization included cotton gins, reapers, harvesters, tractors, combines, trucks, etc. People were rightfully terrified of worker displacement.
But – all that mechanization resulted in far more manufacturing jobs. And cars and trucks alone resulted in all kinds of new jobs, including manufacturing, motels, road construction and maintenance, insurance, drive-in theaters, roadside restaurants, billboards, suburban real estate, auto repair shops, auto parts stores, gas stations, the petroleum industry, and more.
Today, less than 2% of Americans work in ag.
AI will wipe out jobs. And it will be very painful for many Americans (I don’t want to make light of it) – until they find new jobs.
But my broader point is that AI and technology always create far more unforeseen new jobs than they wipe out.
So, no, we probably cannot look forward to AI wiping out millions of jobs and bringing rates down to 0%. Darn it!
How AI Will Bring Down Rates
In the 1990s, productivity (the amount of stuff Americans produce per hour of work) improved markedly due to computers, software, and the internet. This kept inflation at bay and brought rates down.
This will happen in spades with AI, as it will enormously improve productivity.
The future is very bright – for nimble people.
