Inflation Plummets Again (Woohoo for Rates!) BUT The Fed Won’t Allow Very Low Inflation!

February 12, 2026/in Economy, JVM's Daily Blog

As I mentioned a few weeks ago, Truflation is a blockchain-based (non-government) platform that provides real-time price analyses based on thousands of products, and many consider it much more accurate than the government’s PCE and CPI reports. Truflation was 1.2% in January, but it has recently fallen to an impressively low 0.68% (on falling natural gas prices). In contrast, the government’s less-accurate CPI figure is at 2.7% (with an update coming Friday). So, inflation is definitely cooling, and that is very good news for rates, as bond investors focus heavily on inflation.Read More

When Do Fed Rate Cuts Work? 500,000 More Sellers Than Buyers? (Probably Not)

June 2, 2025/in Economy, JVM's Daily Blog

The Fed cut the Fed Funds Rate a full 1% last year, and mortgage rates went UP by 1% (a point I’ve made about 700x in this blog). Over the […]Read More

Are Deflation And Lower Rates Possible? Interesting Factoids

January 8, 2025/in Interest Rates, JVM's Daily Blog

The 10 Year Treasury Yield is near 4.7%, and X is lit up with predictions of higher rates to come and the demise of the housing market. Read More

Deflation vs. Inflation; #1 Reason I’m On Team Deflation; Deflation = Much Lower Rates

October 18, 2024/in Mortgage Industry, JVM's Daily Blog

Deflation literally terrifies every economist on the planet. But ironically, it can help the mortgage industry, as deflation portends very low interest rates.Read More

Inflation Cools; Rates Fall; Why Inflation Will Fall Further; When Bad News Is Bad News

June 12, 2024/in Interest Rates, JVM's Daily Blog

Wow! Huge day! CPI (Inflation) came in cooler than expected – and rates fell, and stocks soared. But, someone is confused, and I will explain why below. But, first some […]Read More

Why The U.S. Can Print Money With No Inflation – But Other Countries Can’t

April 19, 2024/in Mortgage Industry, JVM's Daily Blog

There is probably no more important concept for people to understand than this: why can the U.S. print so much money without inflation when other countries can’t? It is so important because so many people are under the impression that our massive government deficits are going to crash the dollar from all the “printing” and bring on “hyperinflation.”Read More

Inflation Concerns Push Rates Up – Opposite of My Predictions

February 15, 2023/in JVM's Daily Blog, Interest Rates, Mortgage Industry

Mortgage applications fell precipitously recently in direct response to a rise in interest rates. We have seen the opposite effect too over the last several months in response to falling […]Read More

Why DEFLATION Is Now Likely and SO SCARY!

December 15, 2022/in JVM's Daily Blog, Financial Planning, Interest Rates

HERE’S WHAT’S SCARY: MY NEIGHBOR WAITING TO BUY HIS MERCEDES! You have no idea how scary that is! My neighbor grew up poor in Boston, played college football at the […]Read More

DEFLATION Coming Soon To A Theater Near You!

September 23, 2022/in JVM's Daily Blog, Interest Rates

Stephanie Pomboy is the founder of a macro research firm called MacroMavens, and she was on this Wealthion Podcast recently, and it was so interesting I had to blog about […]Read More

The One Thing That Can CRASH The Housing Market!

June 4, 2021/in JVM's Daily Blog, Mortgage Industry

I have repeatedly blogged about reasons why we are not in a housing bubble: Demographics & Demand: Homebuying demographics are peaking, as a surge of millennials is just now hitting […]Read More

Cage Match Of The Century: Inflation vs. Deflation; Diversify!

April 1, 2021/in JVM's Daily Blog, Self Education

After the 2008 mortgage meltdown, the Fed and congress stepped in with trillions of dollars of “Quantitative Easing” (buying of Treasuries and Mortgage-Backed Securities) and stimulus spending – and numerous market watchers and pundits, e.g. Arthur Laffer, predicted massive inflation. They were all wrong for several reasons, including the fact that we were already in a deflationary environment, and, more importantly, banks largely stopped lending and consumers did not spend like they did in the past – so the newly created money did not turn over or end up in the economy. This Investopedia article explains this in more detail.Read More