Tag Archive for: lyn alden

The Death of Inflation; Some Fascinating & Necessary Perspective

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Today’s inflation report came in surprisingly tame, despite rising energy prices. It is another indication that inflation is clearly waning, as both Jeff Snider and Barry Habib have been predicting for some time.Read More

Disinflationary Trend Continues Despite Oil and Autos! WHOOAA!

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I have been touting the May 10th Consumer Price Index Report (for April inflation numbers) for months now in blogs and in my talks. I touted it with so much fanfare because Barry Habib has been doing so for good reason: The April of 2022 reading was high, so it made it much more likely that April of 2023 would look much better in a “year-over-year” comparison.Read More

Recession, Depression, Soft Landing, High Rates, Low Rates – Who Do We Believe?

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In late 2020, I was having lunch with several mortgage bankers who wanted to celebrate the success we were all having – as we were all enjoying unimaginable record profits. I, however, was not in a celebratory mood, telling them that rates would likely approach 8% in the coming years and that we needed to streamline and get much more efficient.Read More

DANGER! Don’t Look Through the “2008 Lens!”

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Lyn Alden is probably my favorite Macro Analyst, as she is clearly brilliant and also very articulate and objective. I HIGHLY recommend following her on Twitter and on any podcast […]Read More

Inflation & Rates Increase But Industry Experts Still Bet On Low Rates

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The current surge in commodity prices such as wheat, nickel, copper, and oil is fostering doom and gloom predictions – of mass shortages and runaway inflation. So, in light of that, why is Raoul Pal, the founder and CEO of “Real Vision” buying bonds in a bet that interest rates will fall? Pal thinks higher prices will crush demand and that a recession is looming.Read More

How Much Have Rates Risen? Will They Fall?

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Last year at this time, the average conforming 30-year fixed-rate was about 2.7%, per Freddie Mac. Currently, the average conforming rate is over 3.7%. So, rates have risen a full 1% now over the last 12 months.Read More