Prior to every recession, we see major signals that almost never fail. Those signals include spikes in the unemployment rate (the Sahm Rule), and the inverted yield curve (where short-term rates are higher than long-term rates), declining consumer confidence, and falling manufacturing activity. These recession signals are so strong and so consistent that I often make fun of the “this-time-is-different” crowd, as we hear that phrase prior to every recession from people telling us there will be no recession.Read More