When I want to know how the Iran war is going, I don’t check CNN (“We’re getting crushed! WWIII Is Here! Trump eats babies!”), and I never check Fox (“We’re kicking ass and taking names! The war was over last week, and high oil prices are propaganda! Trump walks on water!”).
In other words, I don’t trust war updates that involve people, because people invariably have agendas that influence their reporting, and even the best journalists can be swayed by propaganda.
What I do trust, though, is the oil markets. The reason, as I have explained several times, is that oil buyers and sellers can never afford to have an agenda.
They have to look only at reality, or they can lose tens of millions, or even billions, of dollars.
China, for example, imports 10 to 12 million barrels of oil per day. They have to decide whether to lock in prices today before they rise further, or risk waiting for them to fall back to pre-war levels.
A wrong bet can cost China as much as $200 million per day. So, you can bet China’s oil traders are also ignoring CNN and Fox and gathering as much accurate data as possible (far more than any journalist) before making their bets.
And today, oil prices are up slightly due to attacks on natural gas fields, but they are not shooting to the stratosphere.
That again implies to me that thousands of oil traders still do not believe the war will escalate out of control.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is at $97 as I type this blog – in the same range it has been now for several days.
I will get worried when I see WTI jump over $120 per barrel.
This is not to discount the damage that even $97-per-barrel oil will do to the world economy.
But my point remains, if anyone wants to see how the war is going, they might check WTI Crude Oil Prices.
Danger: Arterial Through Streets!
For almost 20 years, I lived in a really cute neighborhood (Northgate) in a really cute town (Walnut Creek), with really cute houses, really cute kids, really cute schools, really cute parks, and really cute streets.
It was pure Americana, but…there was danger lurking in all that cuteness!
There were two streets with really cute names (Wiget and Walnut) that looked harmless on a map.
But, during rush hour and when school is starting or stopping, those streets are raging thoroughfares – with bumper-to-bumper traffic.
Homes on those streets sell for six-figure discounts relative to nearby model matches on quiet streets.
These streets are perfect examples of “arterial through streets.”
These are much smaller and quieter than the major boulevards that traverse most cities, but they still tend to have far more traffic than most nearby streets in the neighborhood.
I bring this up because we sometimes have trouble appraising homes on arterial through streets, and buyers and agents want to send us comps on much quieter streets that we cannot use without a location adjustment.
Appraisers will often try to work with us and not overly adjust for location, but unfortunately, the market, underwriters, and appraisal reviewers well-understand how much traffic can influence value.
This is just another reminder to never underestimate the impact of nearby traffic on home values. It’s often far more significant than most people realize.
