I stole that subject line from Rick Beato – a boomer musician who records excellent YouTube videos about music, musicians, great bands, and great songs.
I’m not into music at all, but I love his videos because they’re so interesting and educational. I also love Rick’s ability to appreciate every genre of music—from classical to jazz, pop, country, heavy metal, hip hop, and everything else.
What is particularly interesting though is all of the vitriol he endures just for sharing opinions (what makes a song great, top 20 guitar players, etc.) in an effort to educate.
Here is a great video he recently made that pissed off everyone over 30, in which he explains why rock stars stop making good music after 30.
Rick has completely changed my mind and perspective about pop music in general, as I largely hated it as a kid.
Two bands that I despised but now very much appreciate are Tears for Fears and Journey, as Rick loves both bands and explains why they’re so incredibly talented.
The keys of course are taking the time to hear Rick out and be willing to give up pre-conceived notions.
What a Behavioral Psychologist Finds Most Interesting After a 35-Year Career
There is a controversial behavioral psychologist on X who likes to remind us of what he finds most interesting after a 35-year career.
And that is the inability of smart people to give up their convictions even in the face of incontrovertible evidence that shows that their convictions might be wrong.
Everyone is guilty of this to some extent, no matter what, but I like to think I’m less guilty than others. This is because I am willing to hear anyone out, and I spend much of my day searching out opinions I disagree with.
Let’s take inflation for example.
After college, I was a hardcore Milton Friedman acolyte, believing that inflation is always a function of the money supply.
But we’ve since learned that Mr. Friedman got many things wrong, including “velocity” or how fast money changes hands once it is in the economy (Friedman thought velocity was constant, but it varies tremendously, and higher velocity levels cause more inflation).
We’ve also learned that supply shocks like we saw during COVID can push prices way up (Jeff Snider’s reminder). And Raoul Pal reminds us that demand surges or collapses (like when boomers hit the economy in full force in the 1970s and started to exit in the 2000s) can also influence prices.
Here are a few more things I got very wrong that forced me to change my mind.
I thought for sure that the massive waves of Quantitative Easing (where the Fed was buying up Treasuries and Mortgage-Backed Securities) after the 2008 meltdown would result in out-of-control inflation – and it clearly did not.
I also thought we’d see a bad recession in 2023 and 2024, but we clearly did not – forcing me to give much more credence to the government stimulus and the “liquidity” crowds.
Why We Saw So Much Inflation Post-COVID – When We Did Not See It Post-2008
As an aside, we saw so much inflation after COVID for several reasons, including (1) the M2 money supply grew at a record rate in 2020 and 2021 – the biggest factor; (2) supply chains were shut down, fostering shortages; and (3) stimulus checks were mailed out en masse that were spent very quickly (increasing “velocity”).
And here’s something interesting for everyone who wants to blame only Biden, and not Trump, for today’s inflation: The M2 money supply shot up when Mr. Trump was president too. Remember that banks create most new money out of thin air simply by making loans – and lending surged during COVID, as borrowers obtained new mortgages at record levels and businesses drew on their credit lines at record levels. Quantitative Easing also added to M2.
We Will Soon Learn More About Economics Than Ever Before
I still think Mr. Trump will not be able to fend off a recession, and I think we will learn more about economics and inflation over the next few years than we’ve ever learned before because of how unprecedented these times are – and I will change my mind again and again in the face of new information.
I share all of this because we live in a ridiculously polarized world where people cling to their beliefs about everything, like their lives depend on them.
These beliefs include the causes of inflation, the likelihood of a recession, the value of Bitcoin, the value of gold, the likelihood of a continued stock market runup, the direction of interest of rates, the impact of climate change, and of course anything and everything to do with politics.
People are absolutely vicious with their comments on social media about all of these topics, and the recent election seems to have ramped things up.
This is just me reminding readers to hear everyone out – and to not be afraid to change their mind on occasion in the face of new information.
Nobody ever got hurt from changing their mind, and Journey was a pretty good band after all. Who knew?
