America’s housing market did not fully bottom out until 2012 – a full four years after the 2008 mortgage meltdown.
But, here is what is interesting: even when the market was at its absolute slowest ever in 2012, there were still 8,000 transactions closing every month within about a 60+ mile radius from my office.
I bring this up because social media is already humming with myriad reports about the death of the housing market and how there is almost “no activity” in some sectors.
My point is that there is ALWAYS activity. Please see the annual existing home sales chart at the bottom of this blog, as it illustrates my point beautifully.
Rates were close to 20% in the early 1980s, and almost 2 million homes still changed hands (when our population was 30% or 100 million people smaller).
In 2012, we were still moving 3.5 million units, and at the worst of the COVID crisis, we were still at 4 million units.
For perspective, we “peaked” at over 7 million units annually prior to the 2008 meltdown, and at over 6.5 million units annually in 2021 (if we include “new home” sales, the number is closer to 7 million).
So dropping down to 4.5 million units annually is hardly Armageddon, and it could even be considered “normal,” (and it is certainly not a “freezing up” of the entire market).
This blog is just one more reminder to not get caught up in the social media hype about a frozen market, as there will always be millions of homes selling (and opportunities) in America.
The reasons so many homes sell every year are numerous and include (1) job changes; (2) new household formations; (3) changes in family size; (4) retirees and/or the elderly downsizing; (5) lifestyle changes, e.g. moving to the mountains to ski and hike; (6) natural disasters; and (7) America’s obsession with bargain hunting.
Total Number Of Existing Home Sales Annually (Seasonally Adjusted)
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