Tag Archive for: yield curve

Fed Rate Cut: Corruption (Powell Helping Kamala) Or Desperate Effort to Stave Off Recession?

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“They lowered interest rates for the election, nothing more…” That was a post on X.com I just saw, but I have seen hundreds of similar posts all over social media […]Read More

“Jay, Your Blogs Are Way Too Doom and Gloom” More Doom And Gloom – Why?

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An agent recently told me that she loves my blogs, but they are “way too doom and gloom.” Doom and gloom can be a good thing though, and I will explain why.Read More

Do 8 Days of Falling Copper Prices Predict A Bad Recession? Probably

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Investors call copper “Dr. Copper” because copper prices are such a strong indication of the health of the world economy. Copper Prices Tank – Worrying Investors The Barchart website posted […]Read More

5 Fail-Safe Recession Indicators

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Three pieces of news surfaced yesterday that should have pushed interest rates through the roof! 1) Inflation (CPI) came in much hotter than expected; 2)The Fed made comments about “rates needing to stay higher to ensure inflation is tamed;” and 3)An employment report (jobless claims) came in much stronger than expected. When I saw this news surface, I thought we’d see rates climb at least 1/4% yesterday, but instead they actually fell a bit.Read More

Rates Hit 23-Year High (I Hate It When That Happens)

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Mortgage interest rates rose yesterday largely in response to the release of Fed Minutes – and they are now at levels not seen since 2000. Here are a few interesting […]Read More

Mortgage Rates Hit New High; Causes? When Does It End?

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Why I Know High Rates Won’t Kill Us The average mortgage rate today is 7.20%, per the Mortgage News Daily, the highest rate we have seen since November of last year. I […]Read More

WHEN Will the Recession Come?

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EVERYONE expected the entire country and much of the world to be mired in a horrible recession by now. And yet, we’re still growing. I blogged about the reasons why […]Read More

Rates Climb 1/2%! Will It Last? What’s Going On?

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Rates have shot up almost 1/2 percent since late June – taking a particular beating over the last week (largely in response to strong employment data). We are back to […]Read More

Europe Raised Rates By 1/2%, and Rates FELL

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The European Central Bank (ECB) raised its short-term rate (its equivalent to the Fed Funds Rate that the Fed raises here in the U.S.) by a full 1/2% yesterday. It shocked many observers because Europe is facing a banking crisis that is potentially much worse than what we face here in the U.S. (for reasons I won’t go into for brevity’s sake).Read More

The Fed Does NOT Control Interest Rates! Follow the Data Guys!

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  The Fed raised “rates” last year at the fastest pace in history! There were 7 “rate” increases in total: 0.25% in March 0.50% in May 0.75% in June 0.75% […]Read More

Why ARM Rates Are So Close to 30-Year Rates

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Apparently, in 2002, it was “Hot In Herre” – or at least it was according to Nelly. I, however, had no idea because I had never heard the song, and […]Read More

The “Yield Curve”; What It Is, and Why It Matters

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The yield curve—how interest rates change with loan length—matters for mortgage choices. When the curve is flat, ARMs offer little savings over 30-year fixed loans. A steep curve signals inflation, while an inverted one can warn of recession.Read More