Tag Archive for: predictions

Why No Armageddons Yet? And What Happens When We Get One? Takeaways

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If the Book of Revelation in the Bible (about the coming of end times) were written by a mortgage guy, there would be entire chapters devoted to the impact on interest rates (which is why I am pretty sure nobody asked a mortgage guy to write that book). “…There was a great earthquake. The sun turned black like sackcloth made of goat hair, the whole moon turned blood red, and the stars in the sky fell to earth…and interest rates fell sharply as a result…” See? It just doesn’t sound right. Anyway – readers of this blog should understand this axiom by now: Apocalypses usually mean lower rates.Read More

Why I Was So WRONG About Rates; Why It Matters So Much

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If you google “wrongness,” you’ll see a picture of me screaming “Rates will fall by March of ’23!” I am wrong a lot actually and am not afraid to admit it because it makes for great learning and blog fodder. For example, I was wrong about when rates will fall, and I was wrong when I said that the Fed would not raise rates again after its June pause.Read More

Insanely WRONG CATASTROPHIC Predictions

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Surprisingly, I got more positive feedback from this recent blog, Insanely WRONG Predictions, than from almost any other I wrote this year. That prompted me to write another blog along […]Read More

Housing Market – Not All Rosy; Bumps & Volatility

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TOO OPTIMISTIC ABOUT HOUSING? “Stick to mortgages, Jay!” I touted the strength of the housing market numerous times over the last several months, and both borrowers and agents told me […]Read More

Elephant In Room: Housing Prices; HELOCs Too

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I was asked for advice yesterday for a buyer whose appraisal came in $55,000 under contract price (another lender was doing the loan). The seller and the selling agent were pushing the buyer to bring in the shortfall because the “market was so hot.” There is a bit more to the story but my advice was to not bring in the shortfall because buyers have more leverage in this market, with so many other buyers on the sidelines.Read More