Tag Archive for: interest rates

If the Stock Market Crashes, What Happens to the Real Estate and Mortgage Industries?

“I hope the stock market continues to boom because that means more money for down payments, a willingness to buy no matter what, and more appraisals for me…” I have a friend in the SF Bay Area who has been appraising for almost 40 years, and he made the above observation to me last week.Read More

Booming Stock Market’s Keeping Rates High! 12-Day Closes; Giant Pool of Money

There are about 1,460 active listings in the two counties near our SF Bay Area office – the lowest number I have ever seen … by far! (In contrast, there were almost twice as many at this time in 2021). Because inventory is so incredibly tight, we are seeing multiple offers everywhere despite today’s higher rates. As a result, the majority of the contracts we’re getting are 12-day and 14-day closings, as fast closings continue to entice sellers. Hence, we are again encouraging our buyers and agents to ask about our 12 and 14 calendar (not “business”) day closings.Read More

Dangerous Myth: “Market Is Soft So I Can Lowball”

One of the biggest misconceptions our pre-approved buyers have is that the market is soft because of today’s higher rates. While it is a fact that today’s higher rates are keeping an enormous number of potential buyers on the sidelines, it is also a fact that inventory levels remain at record lows.Read More

Panic & Mayhem Over Interest Rates Shooting Up! Who’s Terrified The Most?

Slippery up and sticky down! Elevator up and escalator down! Those are the cliches we often hear about interest rates, and we’ve seen them play out in spades in recent weeks. Investors panic on every hot inflation or economic report that might prevent the Fed from lowering rates, or worse – cause the Fed to increase rates. This is partially because investors don’t want to lose money by being wrongly positioned (like Silicon Valley Bank was when it held too many low-rate bonds and went belly up), but it is more because our entire economy is addicted to “low-rate-monetary-heroin” (to quote George Gammon). So, rates are always prone to shoot up very quickly, but they tend to come down very slowly – as there is less at stake for investors when rates are trending downward.Read More

Friends Don’t Let Friends “Time the Market”

We had a borrower who did not want to lock his loan last week because he was convinced interest rates would fall further. But, instead of falling, rates actually rose almost 1/2% over the ensuing week. So – this is my reminder to borrowers to never try to time the market with respect to interest rates, as we see our clients get burned time and again.Read More

Lower Rates = More Competition For Buyers – Which Is Something Buyers Don’t Understand; Fannie Mae’s Confusing Buyers Survey

83% of consumers do NOT think now is a good to buy a house! But, at the same time, Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index just hit its highest level since March of 2022! Fannie’s Home Purchase Index simply reflects consumers’ current and forward-looking views of overall housing market conditions.Read More

Mortgages After Bankruptcies – Easy to Get! Jobs Report Nonsense Again

Mortgage rates shot through the roof this morning in response to a very strong jobs report! This is exactly what I predicted would happen in my blog yesterday, as the official BLS jobs reports always come out stronger than expected - particularly in January - before getting revised downward in later months.Read More

Fed Holds & Rates Fall: How Jobless Claims, Productivity & BLS Reports Impact Mortgage Rates; Inflation’s Over

Rates fell again this morning in response to negative labor market news and positive productivity news. Initial and continuous jobless claims came in higher than expected today along with more layoff announcements from the likes of UPS (12,000), Salesforce (7,000), and Microsoft (3,000). Bond investors are of course very leery of all these numbers, as they understand that layoffs are always the final shoe to drop once we’re in a recession and this this could just be the beginning. Labor market productivity improved too – and that is huge! Productivity refers to the total amount of output relative to total hours worked – and it is something America is particularly adept at improving. It is extremely important because improved productivity is another indication that inflation will be tamed, as labor costs are a major component of inflation.Read More

Rates Fall Again – Wow! Fed Day; Tale of Two Economies; Who’s Buying Record Level Government Debt? Is the Fed Like North Korea?

The average interest rate was over 8.0% in October, and today it is under 6.7%, as rates fell again in response to weaker-than-expected employment data. Today is “Fed Day,” meaning that the Fed is meeting to announce whether or not it will lower the Fed Funds Rate. Fed Chair Powell’s comments will likely move the markets much more than anything the Fed actually does – so expect volatility later today.Read More

Learn How to Lower Your Monthly Mortgage Payment

Are you feeling weighed down by high interest rates and hefty monthly mortgage payments? Don't fret. JVM Lending is here to guide you through your journey toward the best way to lower your monthly mortgage payments. We understand how challenging it can be to balance your budget, especially when a considerable chunk of your income goes to your mortgage every month. We’ve compiled the best strategies to help you lower those monthly payments and put more cash back in your pocket.Read More

Interest Rates Up Again; Trends Vs. Blips; How Worried Should We Be?

The “average interest rate” peaked at just over 8% in October. Interest rates then slid downward 1.5% over the next few months before heading back north over the last few weeks. While they remain 1% lower than where they were in October, the slide upward over the last few weeks has left many people in the real estate and mortgage world all too worried. Read More

5 Fail-Safe Recession Indicators

Three pieces of news surfaced yesterday that should have pushed interest rates through the roof! 1) Inflation (CPI) came in much hotter than expected; 2)The Fed made comments about “rates needing to stay higher to ensure inflation is tamed;” and 3)An employment report (jobless claims) came in much stronger than expected. When I saw this news surface, I thought we’d see rates climb at least 1/4% yesterday, but instead they actually fell a bit.Read More

Will Low Rates Break the Mortgage Rate Lockdown Logjam & Crush the Market?

Despite naysayers insisting that mortgage rate lockdowns are NOT a thing, it seems abundantly obvious to us in the industry that they are most definitely “a thing.” Sellers are reluctant to sell if they have to buy a new home with a mortgage in a 4% to 5% higher rate environment. Hence, sellers are “locked down” by their low-rate mortgages, and this is the reason why inventory remains so tight.Read More

Strong Jobs Report Pushes Rates DOWN? FHA Condo Spot Approvals

Rates continue to bounce up and down today, but the jobs report clearly should not be taken too seriously, and it appears that the economy is still on very soft footing. Remember too that the jobs market is the last domino to fall when recessions hit.Read More