Tag Archive for: 10 Year Treasury

Iran Peace Deal; Rates Fall A Little, But Not That Much; WHY?

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Factoid #1: If the spread between mortgage rates and the 10-Year Treasury were as high now as it was in 2023, the average mortgage rate would be almost 7.7%. Last year on this date, average rate was about 6.9%. So, yeah, today’s average of 6.56% is not so bad… Factoid #2: Elon’s $1.2 trillion net worth would only have been worth a meager $930 billion six years ago. This is a reminder that we’ve seen almost 30% inflation since the COVID money-printers were turned on, and that we should not be that impressed with Elon – who’s clearly just riding a wave of inflation (except for those rockets, satellites, neuro links, electric cars, electric trucks, giant battery packs, solar units, and boring machines, as well as universal internet service, FSD software, a mildly prominent social media company, and xAI).Read More

Sad: People Are Breaking Up With Their Rates☹️(Date The Rate/Marry The House Still Works)

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For years up through 2022, agents and loan officers alike repeated the mantra: “Marry The Home; Date The Rate”. The meaning was this: Worry about the house because it is more permanent; don’t worry about prevailing interest rates, as you can refinance later when rates fall. So, when rates remained higher for the last few years, social media lit up with complaints about “evil” loan officers and agents misleading buyers with that errant phrase.Read More

WOW! Record Rate Increases & Volatility! The REAL Reason Rates Shot Higher

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The 10-Year Treasury Yield was down to 3.88% only a few days ago; it hit 4.5% last night, and it sits at 4.45% as I start this blog early in the morning. Both the stock and bond markets have not seen this much volatility (with prices and rates moving up and down repeatedly throughout the day) since the 2008 financial crisis.Read More

Rates Up Again! Johnson: “This Is The New Normal, Unless…”

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Brent Johnson says rates will remain relatively high…unless there is a major crisis that forces a massive “flight to safety” (when investors move from stocks to bonds en masse), or a Fed intervention (with massive rate cuts and/or quantitative easing).Read More

Why Government Deficit Spending Will NOT Push Up Rates Or Cause Inflation

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The US added $25 trillion of federal debt and rates are about the same as where they were in 2008. My Point? Doomsayers frequently tell us that the onslaught of Treasury debt and government borrowing will push rates way up. But the last 16 years prove them wrong, per George Gammon. We've increased our debt by $25 TRILLION, and rates remain low! Read More

Fed Lost Control Of Interest Rates; Why Massive Government Borrowing Did Not Push Rates Up

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This is another reminder that the Fed only controls the Fed Funds Rate (the overnight lending rate between banks) and that it does not control long-term rates. Long-term rates can plummet or shoot higher, no matter what the Fed does.Read More

Myth: Rate Cuts Help The Economy; Rates Fall To January Levels

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The 10 Year Treasury Yield fell below 4.0% for the first time since late January. This is in response to continuing weak economic signals (particularly in the employment realm), moderating inflation signals, and the belief that Fed Chair Powell will cut rates in September.Read More

Rates Hit New Record Highs; China’s Demise Part II – What To Do?

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The Ten Year Treasury Yield hit its highest level since 2007! Here are some of the reasons: Waiting On The Fed. Bond prices fell and yields/rates rose, as investors are anxiously waiting […]Read More

10 Year Treasury Yields Vs. Mortgage Rates (Great Info & Good News!)

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When borrowers used to ask us the best way to track the direction of mortgage rates, we would tell them to track the 10 Year Treasury Yield because mortgage rates track 10 Year relatively closely. The problem though is that the spread between the 10 Year Treasury Yield and mortgage rates has grown much larger since the Fed started to raise interest rates last year, and they have not been moving in lockstep over the last year.Read More

The Fed Does NOT Control Interest Rates! Follow the Data Guys!

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  The Fed raised “rates” last year at the fastest pace in history! There were 7 “rate” increases in total: 0.25% in March 0.50% in May 0.75% in June 0.75% […]Read More

There Is No “One Rate” or “A Rate”

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I have been hearing news reporters and commentators say: “…the Fed raised ‘the rate,’” over and over, as if there is a single interest that the Fed has the power […]Read More

Why Borrowers Should Not Pay Points to Buy Down Interest Rates

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This is a topic I touch on or repeat at least once per year b/c borrowers continue to ask us if they “should buy down their rate,” and our answer […]Read More

Rates Edge Higher Again; Normality? Will Rates Fall Further?

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Mortgage interest rates edged higher again today, and the 10 Year Treasury is at its highest level since late March. Rates edged higher largely in response to a stronger than […]Read More