Who the Hell Is Barry?
Barry Habib is the founder of MBS Highway, a subscription service that thousands of mortgage industry insiders subscribe to at a cost of $120 to $170 per month – and it is worth it!
Barry and his team go way out of their way to provide value on every front – including marketing tips, housing data, mortgage data, economic data, and daily video updates with real-time economic data and amazingly accurate predictions.
I have never met Barry Habib, and years ago, I used to make fun of his updates and “when to lock” suggestions, as they seemed like nothing more than guesses.
But – about 5 years ago, I noticed that his morning updates became far more interesting, and, as mentioned above, his predictions became far more accurate.
What I also noticed is that Barry not only followed many of the macro analysts I follow, but he was personal friends with them as well!
These analysts are extraordinarily sharp themselves, and they include: Lacy Hunt, David Rosenberg, and Peter Boockvar.
So What Happened Today?
Employment numbers came out weaker than expected, and rates plummeted as a result.
The unemployment rate jumped 0.2% to 3.6%; average hours worked dropped; and average earnings increased less than expected.
This is almost exactly what Barry predicted would happen – after the ostensibly “very strong” jobs reports we saw in January and February.
Something Is “Breaking” Too!
Something else Barry and a lot of other analysts predicted is that the Fed’s aggressive rate increases would “break” something in the economy, causing a lot of turmoil and eventually forcing the Fed to reverse course.
And yesterday, we saw the first “cracks” of a potential break in the form of a major bank facing major difficulties: Silicon Valley Bank Trading Halted.
This too pushed rates downward.
Why Barry’s Accuracy Is Such a Big Deal?
Barry is predicting further rate drops as additional signs of economic weakness surface and as inflation signals continue to wane, particularly as lower shelter costs work their way into inflation reports.
And, as we all saw in January, even slightly lower rates bring both buyers and sellers off the sidelines in droves. The prospect of lower rates also gives today’s buyers more comfort – if they suspect they can refinance into a lower payment in the near future.
It Won’t Be a Straight Line Downward!
This is a reminder that rates will NOT simply continue to fall in a straight line downward, as they never do and they are rising a bit now even as I type this blog.
They could even go up again next week when a key inflation report is released. But – the continued overall downward trend is very likely for the reasons Barry has been illuminating – and he has been right so far.
The big day to look forward to, per Barry, is May 10th – when Barry expects very positive inflation news.
