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WHAT SHAPE WILL THE REBOUND TAKE
The above subheading is a link to Andy Kessler’s column in the WSJ today (as always we can send key excerpts to non-subscribers upon request).
Mr. Kessler, one of my favorite columnists b/c of his pragmatic accuracy, addresses the question that is on everyone’s mind now that economies are slowly starting to re-open: What will the recovery look like?
Kessler thinks a “V” shaped recovery, where we spring back quickly, and even a “U” shaped recovery, where we come back to life more slowly, are both unlikely now.
Kessler says we’ve now been in lockdown mode too long for a recovery to be “fast,” as stores, movie theaters, airlines, etc. have all suffered permanent damage.
It will be some time before they regain their respective footings and rehire to perform at pre-COVID-levels. And many firms of course will never recover b/c of permanently changed habits and/or too much financial damage.
But Kessler remains optimistic overall.
His main points are: (1) we need to re-open as soon as possible to avoid doing any more permanent damage; and (2) we will recover but there will be no “shape”- our recovery will be in fits and starts.
Kessler’s hope is that politicians foster economic growth by encouraging businesses to expand and hire via less regulation, pointing out how stagnant economies are as damaging to a society as anything else.
Jay Voorhees
Founder/Broker | JVM Lending
(855) 855-4491 | DRE# 1197176, NMLS# 310167
